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Game Recap
PHI6
Final/SOFri, Nov 14, 2025Every game that night
STL5

PHI beat STL 6-5 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 2.43. PHI outshot STL 31 to 17. O. Tippett led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). T. Zegras had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Ersson stopped 12 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
PHI12216
STL21205
  1. 1st 1:19STLJ. Kyrou0.05 xG
  2. 1st 8:18PHIT. Zegras0.15 xG
  3. 1st 9:42STLJ. Snuggerud0.14 xG
  4. 2nd 6:54STLJ. Faulk0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 7:17PHIC. Dvorak0.17 xG
  6. 2nd 18:24PHIT. Zegras0.08 xG
  7. 3rd 0:40STLD. Holloway0.08 xG
  8. 3rd 4:56STLR. Thomas0.15 xG
  9. 3rd 7:53PHIC. Dvorak0.20 xG
  10. 3rd 10:29PHIO. Tippett0.16 xG

Team Stats

PHISTL
31Shots on goal17
2.63Expected goals2.43
52Shot attempts47
245v5 shots on goal14
0/1Power play0/1
18Hits20
16Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes2
10Giveaways12
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.63 xGSTL 2.43 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTSTL goal, 1:19PHI goal, 8:18STL goal, 9:42STL goal, 6:54PHI goal, 7:17PHI goal, 18:24STL goal, 0:40STL goal, 4:56PHI goal, 7:53PHI goal, 10:29

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI31 on goal, 5 scored
STL17 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
O. TippettRW134411+4015:571:01
T. ZegrasC213700+1020:020:59
C. DvorakC213300+2216:140:00
T. KonecnyRW000103-2021:231:00
B. BrinkRW000340-2019:230:59
S. CouturierC000201-1017:501:01
N. CatesLW000121-1017:090:59
T. FoersterRW0004110016:340:59
M. MichkovRW000100-1014:071:01
R. AbolsC0000000011:470:00
G. HathawayRW000050009:410:00
N. DeslauriersLW000110009:340:00
E. AndraeD022001+4018:000:00
T. SanheimD011111-1023:450:01
N. JuulsenD011021+3016:070:00
C. YorkD000103-2022:401:01
J. DrysdaleD000202-1022:010:59
N. SeelerD000011-3020:460:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Ersson17125.70665:00Win
D. Vladar000–0:00

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. ThomasC112100+1020:161:06
J. KyrouRW112500+1018:510:46
J. SnuggerudRW112211+1017:271:01
D. HollowayLW101210+1020:260:46
O. SundqvistC0110000012:500:13
B. SchennC000000+1019:000:46
P. BuchnevichLW000100+1018:400:59
P. SuterC000210-2015:150:46
M. JosephRW000030-2012:400:00
N. WalkerLW0000710011:520:09
A. ToropchenkoRW000020-2011:130:08
D. DvorskyRW0001000010:591:05
C. FowlerD022203-1023:231:11
J. FaulkD1011000024:280:46
P. BrobergD0000110026:570:15
C. ParaykoD000004-1225:120:03
M. KesselD000000+1012:460:00
H. SkinnerD000041+1010:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Binnington31265.83965:00OT loss
J. Hofer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Zegras16:30C. Dvorak14:57O. Tippett14:10
Line 2B. Brink17:51N. Cates14:26T. Foerster14:15
Line 3T. Konecny17:10S. Couturier15:22M. Michkov12:49
Line 4N. Deslauriers9:34R. Abols11:47G. Hathaway8:51
Pair 1T. Sanheim20:54C. York20:27
Pair 2N. Seeler20:00J. Drysdale18:16
Pair 3N. Juulsen15:19E. Andrae17:22

STL

Line 1J. Kyrou16:50D. Holloway17:15B. Schenn17:08
Line 2P. Buchnevich15:46R. Thomas16:13J. Snuggerud14:54
Line 3M. Joseph12:14P. Suter13:57D. Dvorsky9:54
Line 4O. Sundqvist11:50N. Walker11:09A. Toropchenko10:32
Pair 1P. Broberg24:10C. Parayko24:05
Pair 2J. Faulk21:32C. Fowler19:37
Pair 3M. Kessel12:09H. Skinner10:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.6, STL 3.3PHI 6, STL 5
Total goals5.911
Shots on goalPHI 24.5, STL 25.2PHI 31, STL 17
Win chanceSTL 61%PHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PHI O. Tippett2.640.57425%1
STL J. Kyrou2.450.76231%1
PHI T. Konecny2.210.78027%0
STL D. Holloway2.120.71125%1
PHI M. Michkov2.010.61022%0
PHI S. Couturier2.020.57017%0
PHI T. Zegras1.970.71323%2
PHI T. Foerster1.940.55026%0
STL P. Buchnevich1.810.79027%0
STL J. Snuggerud1.720.53220%1
PHI N. Cates1.710.53019%0
STL C. Parayko1.700.49012%0
STL J. Faulk1.710.52110%1
STL P. Suter1.620.58024%0
STL R. Thomas1.510.96223%1
STL P. Broberg1.500.45011%0
PHI B. Brink1.530.53018%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.510.3719%0
STL B. Schenn1.500.62022%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.430.47317%2
STL C. Fowler1.320.61210%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.310.31016%0
PHI N. Seeler1.300.2304%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.220.3909%0
STL M. Joseph1.200.34011%0
STL N. Walker1.100.32015%0
STL A. Toropchenko1.100.29013%0
PHI C. York1.110.3607%0
PHI R. Abols1.000.1608%0
STL O. Sundqvist0.900.35111%0
PHI E. Andrae0.800.0922%0
PHI G. Hathaway0.800.1909%0
PHI N. Deslauriers0.710.1006%0
PHI N. Juulsen0.600.0711%0
STL M. Kessel0.500.1303%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.