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Game Recap
PHI2
TBL1
PHI beat TBL 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.22 expected goals to 2.45. PHI outshot TBL 31 to 23. S. Laughton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Fedotov stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 19:15TBLN. Kucherov0.19 xG
- 3rd 15:44PHIO. Tippett0.01 xG
Team Stats
PHITBL
31Shots on goal23
2.22Expected goals2.45
52Shot attempts60
235v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/2
23Hits14
16Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways28
10Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.22 xGTBL 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:17 | 2:41 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 2:40 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:27 | 2:46 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 1:21 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:30 |
| A. Richard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:52 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:21 | 1:21 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:18 | 1:13 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 28:21 | 0:01 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:51 | 2:38 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:57 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 65:00 | Win |
| K. Konin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 26:05 | 3:02 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:17 | 1:58 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:03 | 2:10 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:03 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:51 | 1:50 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 2:07 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 1:59 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:57 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 1:51 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 28:22 | 1:57 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:37 | 1:59 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:14 | 0:07 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.9, TBL 3.5 | PHI 2, TBL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 28.5, TBL 26.9 | PHI 31, TBL 23 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 4 | 1.80 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.1 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 0 | 1.17 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.9 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.3 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 4 | 0.98 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.6 | 5 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.6 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI A. Richard | 0.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.