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Game Recap
PHI6
VAN3
PHI beat VAN 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.19 expected goals to 3.04. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Dvorak had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Vladar stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 3:45VAND. Kampf0.19 xG
- 1st 12:02PHIN. Cates0.02 xG
- 2nd 3:40PHIC. Grundstrom0.11 xG
- 2nd 16:20PHIT. Konecny0.05 xG
- 3rd 1:08VAND. O'Connor0.31 xG
- 3rd 1:34PHIB. Brink0.25 xG
- 3rd 17:19PHIO. TippettEN0.48 xG
- 3rd 18:16VANT. Willander0.12 xG
- 3rd 19:23PHIC. DvorakEN0.68 xG
Team Stats
PHIVAN
33Shots on goal35
4.19Expected goals3.04
61Shot attempts72
245v5 shots on goal30
0/1Power play0/4
26Hits29
15Blocked shots16
15Penalty minutes9
16Giveaways19
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 4.19 xGVAN 3.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:54 | 0:28 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:28 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:28 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:28 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:15 | 0:28 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kampf | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:05 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:05 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 4:19 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:03 | 3:37 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:22 | 2:28 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:53 | 3:57 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:45 | 2:23 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:13 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 13:37 | 2:04 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:52 | 2:39 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:27 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 10:58 | 1:27 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:55 | 0:03 |
| T. Willander | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:48 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 24:43 | 2:36 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:14 | 4:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:05 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 58:46 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny13:51T. Zegras14:12C. Dvorak13:59
Line 2S. Couturier12:36O. Tippett11:08D. Barkey11:55
Line 3R. Abols10:55C. Grundstrom11:46N. Grebenkin10:36
Line 4B. Brink11:58M. Michkov11:45N. Cates10:29
Pair 1E. Andrae17:04J. Drysdale17:43
Pair 2N. Seeler14:36R. Ristolainen18:49
Pair 3T. Sanheim15:24C. York13:54
VAN
Line 1M. Sasson13:32L. Karlsson14:38J. DeBrusk14:10
Line 2D. Kampf12:55D. O'Connor12:44K. Sherwood12:37
Line 3C. Garland9:38M. Rossi8:57L. Ohgren11:46
Line 4B. Boeser11:36E. Pettersson13:17E. Kane9:31
Pair 2T. Myers14:46M. Pettersson17:09
Pair 3P. Joseph13:18T. Willander13:13
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.9, VAN 2.9 | PHI 6, VAN 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 26.6, VAN 24.2 | PHI 33, VAN 35 |
| Win chance | PHI 51% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.3 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.2 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.0 | 5 | 0.50 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 2.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN M. Rossi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.6 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.2 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.0 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.7 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN P. Joseph | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.