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Game Recap
PHI7
WPG1
PHI beat WPG 7-1, with the chances close: 2.22 expected goals to 2.43. S. Couturier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Couturier had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Vladar stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:17PHIP. Martone0.14 xG
- 1st 6:57WPGH. Fleury0.09 xG
- 1st 8:24PHIM. Michkov0.02 xG
- 1st 8:49PHIS. Couturier0.15 xG
- 2nd 11:41PHIT. Sanheim0.03 xG
- 2nd 19:28PHIN. CatesSH0.17 xG
- 3rd 6:23PHIS. Couturier0.20 xG
- 3rd 13:32PHIN. Seeler0.04 xG
Team Stats
PHIWPG
23Shots on goal28
2.22Expected goals2.43
50Shot attempts63
185v5 shots on goal26
0/2Power play0/3
25Hits20
17Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways23
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.22 xGWPG 2.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Couturier | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:55 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:47 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:27 | 2:03 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:18 |
| P. Martone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:57 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:09 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:55 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:12 | 0:51 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:51 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:36 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 11:48 | 1:05 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:45 | 1:11 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:26 | 0:33 |
| N. Seeler | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 17:14 | 0:55 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:38 | 1:05 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:54 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:55 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 3:19 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:07 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:22 | 3:34 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:31 | 3:15 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:27 | 3:13 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:07 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:37 | 2:19 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:07 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:55 | 2:19 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 12:54 | 2:37 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:50 | 2:40 |
| H. Fleury | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 24:25 | 3:34 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:23 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:07 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 20:00 | 2:19 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 20 | 15 | 5 | .750 | 40:00 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 20:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Zegras15:16T. Foerster13:41O. Tippett13:26
Line 2C. Dvorak11:37T. Konecny13:02P. Martone13:23
Line 3S. Couturier12:52L. Glendening12:33G. Hathaway10:43
Line 4D. Barkey11:24M. Michkov11:24N. Cates9:34
Pair 1T. Sanheim20:46R. Ristolainen18:01
Pair 2C. York16:46J. Drysdale15:38
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele16:43K. Connor15:29A. Iafallo12:45
Line 2G. Vilardi14:09C. Perfetti12:18A. Lowry11:51
Line 4N. Niederreiter9:10V. Namestnikov9:24B. Lambert10:17
Pair 1D. DeMelo20:11J. Morrissey20:08
Pair 2D. Samberg17:26N. Pionk15:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.6, WPG 3.1 | PHI 7, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 24.4, WPG 25.0 | PHI 23, WPG 28 |
| Win chance | WPG 58% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 2 | 1.20 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| PHI P. Martone | 2.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 3 | 1.21 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 1.9 | 0 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.8 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.7 | 3 | 0.55 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 3 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 3 | 12% | 2 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.0 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG I. Rosen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WPG J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.