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Game Recap
PIT2
BOS1
PIT beat BOS 2-1, with the chances close: 2.31 expected goals to 2.20. P. Tomasino had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. T. Jarry stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:24BOSC. Coyle0.16 xG
- 2nd 19:59PITR. Rakell0.23 xG
- 3rd 7:26PITP. Tomasino0.13 xG
Team Stats
PITBOS
36Shots on goal31
2.31Expected goals2.20
62Shot attempts53
345v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play0/3
15Hits25
15Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways15
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.31 xGBOS 2.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 2:36 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:40 | 2:31 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:03 | 0:44 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:09 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:52 | 2:26 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:59 | 0:09 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:13 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:11 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:07 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:05 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 1:58 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:37 | 1:48 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:23 | 0:28 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 24:21 | 0:04 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 1:06 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:00 | 0:05 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 59:55 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Coyle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:58 |
| T. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:11 | 1:25 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:11 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:58 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:14 | 3:22 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:56 | 4:00 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:31 | 4:02 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:41 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:29 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:11 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 | 3:59 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:23 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:50 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:59 | 0:11 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 57:59 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.7, BOS 3.2 | PIT 2, BOS 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 29.2, BOS 30.0 | PIT 36, BOS 31 |
| Win chance | BOS 59% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 7 | 1.19 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.5 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.7 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.7 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 7 | 0.38 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BOS T. Johnson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.