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Game Recap
PIT1
BOS2
BOS beat PIT 2-1, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 3.54. E. Karlsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Swayman stopped 34 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 0:42PITE. Karlsson0.02 xG
- 1st 5:10BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.09 xG
- 1st 6:00BOSC. Mittelstadt0.28 xG
Team Stats
PITBOS
35Shots on goal28
3.54Expected goals3.77
67Shot attempts69
235v5 shots on goal26
0/4Power play0/3
24Hits23
23Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways16
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.54 xGBOS 3.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 5:22 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 5:35 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 5:44 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:26 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:31 | 2:19 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:03 | 5:20 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:50 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:12 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 1:16 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 4:54 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:15 | 1:29 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:18 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 58:01 | Loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:58 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:57 | 2:41 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 2:38 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:26 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 2:46 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 3:47 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:58 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:13 | 2:47 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:37 | 2:59 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 1:45 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
Line 1T. Novak13:05E. Chinakhov14:12E. Malkin13:50
Line 3N. Acciari9:05C. Dewar11:13A. Hayes9:07
Line 4K. Hayes7:26A. Mantha9:16J. Brazeau7:48
Pair 2C. Clifton14:55R. Shea15:03
Pair 3P. Wotherspoon15:06E. Karlsson13:50
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm15:32D. Pastrnak16:07M. Khusnutdinov11:40
Line 2V. Arvidsson12:44P. Zacha11:45C. Mittelstadt12:16
Line 3S. Kuraly7:59M. Kastelic8:35T. Jeannot8:18
Line 4F. Minten9:15M. Eyssimont7:29M. Geekie12:01
Pair 1N. Zadorov15:22A. Peeke15:39
Pair 2C. McAvoy17:38J. Aspirot13:22
Pair 3H. Lindholm15:23M. Lohrei12:15
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.2, BOS 3.1 | PIT 1, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 29.8, BOS 26.4 | PIT 35, BOS 28 |
| Win chance | PIT 52% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 1 | 1.39 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.6 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.4 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 2.1 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.0 | 6 | 0.66 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.1 | 5 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT R. Shea | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT S. Girard | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.7 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.