Game Recap: PIT 1, CAR 5, November 7, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT1

FinalThu, Nov 7, 2024Every game that night

CAR5

CAR beat PIT 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.04 expected goals to 3.50. PIT outshot CAR 36 to 18. J. Roslovic led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Letang had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. P. Kochetkov stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	0	1	1
CAR	2	2	1	5

1st 0:52CARJ. Martinook0.22 xG
1st 8:47CARJ. Roslovic0.11 xG
2nd 9:27CARJ. Roslovic0.04 xG
2nd 13:52CARJ. Slavin0.03 xG
3rd 2:07CARE. Robinson0.23 xG
3rd 5:08PITB. Lizotte0.22 xG

Team Stats

PITCAR

36Shots on goal18

3.50Expected goals2.04

74Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal15

0/4Power play0/1

28Hits11

12Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes8

8Giveaways10

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.50 xGCAR 2.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT35 on goal, 1 scored

CAR17 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Lizotte	C	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:25	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	22:50	5:36
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	22:00	5:21
S. Crosby	C	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	21:38	5:47
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	2	5	0	0	2	17:39	4:24
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	1	2	2	-3	0	16:08	0:00
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:21	0:53
N. Acciari	C	0	0	4	3	1	-1	0	14:12	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	12:58	2:21
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:56	0:00
V. Puustinen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:16	2:29
C. Glass	C	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	4:47	1:24
K. Letang	D	0	0	5	3	1	0	0	24:20	3:05
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	23:22	4:56
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	19:49	3:44
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	3	-3	0	19:17	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:48	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	18	13	5	.722	59:56	Loss
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Roslovic	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+2	0	13:34	0:40
S. Aho	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	0	17:05	1:24
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:20	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	14:09	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	2	14:02	1:22
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:47	1:20
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:40	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	17:06	1:23
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:34	0:38
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	4	14:13	0:24
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:00	0:37
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:16	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	3	3	0	0	2	+2	0	18:18	0:00
J. Slavin	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	+1	0	21:55	0:12
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+3	0	19:26	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	19:47	1:32
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:25	0:28
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.7, CAR 3.8	PIT 1, CAR 5
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	PIT 27.0, CAR 36.8	PIT 36, CAR 18
Win chance	CAR 67%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR M. Necas	2.8	1	0.84	1	26%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.8	0	0.90	1	28%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	4	0.97	0	31%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.8	3	1.04	2	35%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.3	1	0.80	0	29%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.3	0	0.59	0	12%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.3	5	0.58	0	23%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	4	0.82	0	26%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.9	1	0.38	0	17%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.9	2	0.46	1	16%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	1.9	2	0.56	0	11%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.8	1	0.47	1	8%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	0	0.65	0	13%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.7	0	0.49	1	11%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.7	3	0.52	3	18%	2
PIT L. Eller	1.7	0	0.36	0	15%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.7	2	0.45	0	17%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.7	2	0.44	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	1	0.39	1	16%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.6	5	0.43	0	9%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.5	1	0.25	0	7%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.5	0	0.44	0	17%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.5	0	0.37	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	1	0.31	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	0	0.31	3	9%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.5	1	0.32	0	12%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.5	1	0.26	0	11%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	1	0.34	1	13%	1
PIT V. Puustinen	1.2	0	0.28	0	9%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.1	2	0.20	0	8%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	4	0.22	0	12%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.30	0	4%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	0.9	2	0.24	0	3%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	2	0.22	1	9%	1
PIT R. Graves	0.7	1	0.14	0	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.5	0	0.06	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.