CAR beat PIT 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.17 expected goals to 1.64. CAR outshot PIT 31 to 19. S. Jarvis led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Smith had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Tokarski stopped 16 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| CAR | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 3:47PITK. Hayes0.07 xG
- 1st 5:08PITM. Bunting0.11 xG
- 2nd 4:15CARS. Jarvis0.12 xG
- 2nd 12:45CARJ. Chatfield0.15 xG
- 2nd 16:18CARS. Jarvis0.25 xG
- 3rd 1:51PITE. Karlsson0.03 xG
- OT 1:30CARS. Aho0.52 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 1.64 xGCAR 3.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 | 3:20 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:20 | 2:40 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 3:04 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:01 | 2:07 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 1:50 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:35 | 3:42 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 2:07 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:08 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:05 | 0:10 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:46 | 1:59 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 3:32 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:40 | 2:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:11 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14:13 | 0:02 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 61:30 | OT loss |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:00 | 3:22 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:52 | 3:13 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 3:06 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 3:04 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:20 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:58 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 1:59 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:36 | 1:58 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:16 | 0:06 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:40 | 2:12 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:04 | 0:17 |
| T. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 3:15 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tokarski | 19 | 16 | 3 | .842 | 61:30 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.8, CAR 3.5 | PIT 3, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 26.2, CAR 34.0 | PIT 19, CAR 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 61% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 3 | 1.03 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 3 | 1.07 | 3 | 34% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 0 | 0.81 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 3 | 0.81 | 3 | 28% | 2 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.2 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.8 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.8 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.6 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR T. Smith | 1.4 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.