Game Recap: PIT 4, CAR 5 (SO), March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT4

Final/SOTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

CAR5

CAR beat PIT 5-4 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.90 expected goals to 4.59. CAR outshot PIT 44 to 28. B. Rust led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Jarvis had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. F. Andersen stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	1	1	2	0	4
CAR	1	0	3	1	5

1st 7:46CARL. Stankoven0.30 xG
1st 19:04PITA. Mantha0.08 xG
2nd 11:44PITB. RustPP0.17 xG
3rd 2:49CARM. Jankowski0.11 xG
3rd 3:48CARS. Jarvis0.23 xG
3rd 11:21CARA. NikishinPP0.20 xG
3rd 17:52PITN. Acciari0.23 xG
3rd 19:24PITB. Rust0.18 xG

Team Stats

PITCAR

28Shots on goal44

4.59Expected goals5.90

64Shot attempts85

155v5 shots on goal28

1/5Power play1/5

16Hits28

20Blocked shots14

12Penalty minutes12

20Giveaways15

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.59 xGCAR 5.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT26 on goal, 4 scored

CAR43 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	2	1	3	3	0	0	+2	0	23:14	6:27
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	2	2	4	1	1	+2	0	22:26	7:19
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	20:51	7:07
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	15:24	0:12
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	14:23	2:56
V. Koivunen	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:37	2:02
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	18:35	5:05
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	14:12	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:47	2:17
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	12:58	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	12:23	1:59
A. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:24	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+2	0	28:01	6:57
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	22:14	2:24
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	20:43	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	4	18:10	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	16:00	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	44	40	4	.909	63:06	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	-1	0	22:07	6:22
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	9	2	0	-1	0	20:45	6:09
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	4	17:45	6:23
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	-1	0	17:18	5:28
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	6	0	1	+1	2	15:14	2:04
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	13:54	1:51
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	10:46	1:30
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	2	10:01	0:06
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:07	1:03
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	17:47	0:06
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	14:05	1:58
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	+1	0	8:49	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	2	19:49	5:37
M. Reilly	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	12:11	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-1	0	24:01	1:56
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	2	22:00	0:06
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:51	0:06
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:38	0:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	28	24	4	.857	65:00	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust13:20R. Rakell11:22E. Chinakhov11:09

Line 2C. Dewar9:43B. Lizotte10:37N. Acciari9:47

Line 3E. Soderblom9:31B. Kindel9:50A. Hayes9:12

Line 4T. Novak10:35A. Mantha9:20V. Koivunen7:53

Pair 1E. Karlsson16:09P. Wotherspoon14:56

Pair 2K. Letang15:13R. Shea13:51

Pair 3I. Solovyov12:18C. Clifton10:34

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven11:54J. Blake12:20T. Hall11:29

Line 2J. Staal11:28J. Martinook11:31N. Ehlers10:22

Line 3S. Aho9:17S. Jarvis9:07A. Svechnikov9:33

Line 4M. Jankowski8:20E. Robinson8:12W. Carrier9:40

Pair 1S. Walker14:11K. Miller14:30

Pair 2J. Slavin14:55J. Chatfield13:37

Pair 3M. Reilly12:01A. Nikishin12:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, CAR 3.3	PIT 4, CAR 5
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	PIT 24.8, CAR 30.0	PIT 28, CAR 44
Win chance	CAR 57%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	9	0.85	1	32%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	0	0.79	1	28%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	4	0.78	1	27%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.4	3	0.77	3	29%	2
PIT R. Rakell	2.3	0	0.68	1	25%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	5	0.95	1	32%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.1	4	0.53	2	22%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	2	0.47	1	18%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.0	1	0.30	0	8%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.9	6	0.51	1	22%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	1.8	2	0.57	2	11%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	0	0.55	0	21%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	1	0.42	0	17%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	1	0.35	0	8%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	3	0.66	1	24%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.5	5	0.54	0	20%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	2	0.44	0	9%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	0	0.47	0	19%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	2	0.29	0	8%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.33	0	14%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	2	0.39	0	15%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	1	0.36	0	7%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.4	1	0.20	1	4%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.3	2	0.34	2	9%	1
PIT A. Hayes	1.3	0	0.23	0	12%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	3	0.27	0	12%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	2	0.22	1	10%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	1	0.22	1	12%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.0	4	0.19	0	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	0	0.36	0	14%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	0.9	1	0.25	1	8%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	3	0.26	1	12%	1
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.24	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.7	0	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.