Game Recap: PIT 3, CGY 4 (SO), October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT3

Final/SOTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

CGY4

CGY beat PIT 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.71. PIT outshot CGY 38 to 25. R. Andersson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Rakell had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. D. Wolf stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	0	1	2	0	3
CGY	1	0	2	1	4

1st 11:48CGYR. Andersson0.19 xG
2nd 6:31PITB. RustPP0.14 xG
3rd 2:32PITR. Rakell0.03 xG
3rd 7:46CGYM. Weegar0.02 xG
3rd 13:40PITN. Acciari0.24 xG
3rd 19:17CGYN. Kadri0.27 xG

Team Stats

PITCGY

38Shots on goal25

2.71Expected goals2.58

66Shot attempts61

315v5 shots on goal14

1/4Power play0/4

31Hits24

21Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways17

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.71 xGCGY 2.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT38 on goal, 3 scored

CGY24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	3	2	3	-1	0	23:12	4:08
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	5	3	0	-1	0	21:23	4:08
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	15:49	0:00
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	2	5	5	-1	0	14:39	0:00
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	5	2	1	+1	0	13:32	2:33
K. Hayes	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:03	2:16
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:07	4:10
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:49	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:51	0:48
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	12:56	1:38
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	10:52	0:01
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	2	9:53	2:24
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	24:33	3:51
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	21:54	0:08
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	2	19:06	3:05
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	2	25:59	3:21
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	16:27	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:55	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	25	22	3	.880	65:00	OT loss
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	0	2	2	2	5	0	+2	0	21:54	3:08
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	22:33	4:11
J. Kirkland	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	14:28	0:25
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	8:11	0:28
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	22:11	3:22
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:32	4:11
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	19:28	4:20
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	16:58	4:26
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:44	3:23
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:11	3:12
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	10:22	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	6:55	0:26
R. Andersson	D	1	1	2	3	0	4	+1	0	25:20	3:11
M. Weegar	D	1	0	1	2	3	2	+1	0	26:09	4:33
D. Miromanov	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:45	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	18:20	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:03	0:17
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:29	0:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	38	35	3	.921	63:55	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.2, CGY 3.4	PIT 3, CGY 4
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	PIT 30.8, CGY 33.1	PIT 38, CGY 25
Win chance	CGY 53%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	2	0.93	1	29%	1
PIT S. Crosby	3.0	5	1.12	1	33%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	3	0.80	1	29%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.7	2	0.66	2	27%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.6	1	0.61	0	20%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.4	2	0.63	1	14%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	1	0.91	0	28%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.1	5	0.57	1	22%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	2	0.69	1	13%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	3	0.62	0	21%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	2.0	0	0.44	0	19%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	3	0.63	2	11%	1
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.9	2	0.84	0	31%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	1	0.82	0	21%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.8	2	0.48	0	14%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.7	4	0.35	0	14%	0
PIT L. Eller	1.7	0	0.39	0	16%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	4	0.63	0	22%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	4	0.54	0	11%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.6	2	0.33	1	9%	0
CGY M. Coronato	1.6	1	0.33	0	14%	0
CGY A. Mantha	1.6	0	0.57	0	21%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.5	0	0.28	0	11%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.5	3	0.34	1	12%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	0	0.32	1	13%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.33	1	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.1	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	2	0.25	1	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.15	1	10%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	1	0.18	0	10%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	2	0.20	1	11%	1
PIT R. Graves	0.9	2	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.8	0	0.23	1	11%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	1	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.