Game Recap: PIT 7, COL 2, March 16, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT7

FinalMon, Mar 16, 2026Every game that night

COL2

PIT beat COL 7-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.22 expected goals to 3.19. E. Malkin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Burns had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Silovs stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	4	2	1	7
COL	2	0	0	2

1st 3:01PITE. Malkin0.08 xG
1st 4:08COLN. MacKinnon0.03 xG
1st 4:23PITA. Mantha0.13 xG
1st 13:00PITE. Malkin0.17 xG
1st 13:43PITE. Soderblom0.08 xG
1st 14:21COLB. Burns0.01 xG
2nd 10:36PITE. Karlsson0.01 xG
2nd 16:20PITB. RustPP0.18 xG
3rd 9:06PITN. Acciari0.22 xG

Team Stats

PITCOL

20Shots on goal27

2.22Expected goals3.19

40Shot attempts68

155v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play0/4

19Hits11

19Blocked shots12

13Penalty minutes11

18Giveaways15

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.22 xGCOL 3.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT20 on goal, 7 scored

COL27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+1	4	16:18	3:11
B. Rust	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	17:05	3:14
N. Acciari	C	1	1	2	2	0	4	+3	0	16:36	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	+3	0	16:12	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+3	0	10:00	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:09	1:28
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:23	2:50
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	14:57	3:15
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:29	1:49
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:57	1:18
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:52	1:22
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:09	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	2	3	4	0	0	+2	0	21:44	2:59
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	23:39	0:13
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+2	0	20:48	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:14	1:41
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+2	5	16:07	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	24:08	5:47
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	-1	0	22:39	5:42
G. Brindley	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	10:20	2:17
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	22:40	2:17
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:18	5:55
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	20:16	5:44
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	2	15:28	2:16
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	13:45	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	7	13:31	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:03	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	8:10	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	-1	0	21:31	6:06
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	16:43	0:00
B. Burns	D	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	15:18	1:50
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	17:35	2:06
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:45	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:00	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	11:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	5	2	3	.400	13:00	Loss
M. Blackwood	15	11	4	.733	47:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1T. Novak13:40E. Chinakhov15:41E. Malkin13:06

Line 2R. Rakell12:31B. Rust11:07A. Mantha11:42

Line 3N. Acciari11:33C. Dewar11:12E. Soderblom10:00

Line 4V. Koivunen10:09J. Brazeau10:30B. Kindel10:34

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon17:55E. Karlsson15:49

Pair 2K. Letang18:33R. Shea18:19

Pair 3I. Solovyov13:21C. Clifton10:58

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:57M. Necas18:19V. Nichushkin18:41

Line 2N. Kadri14:23B. Nelson12:40N. Roy12:21

Line 3J. Drury12:25P. Kelly11:24J. Kiviranta8:35

Line 4Z. Bardakov8:10G. Brindley8:03

Pair 1C. Makar13:51D. Toews13:48

Pair 2B. Kulak15:46S. Malinski14:07

Pair 3B. Burns11:29J. Manson14:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, COL 3.6	PIT 7, COL 2
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	PIT 26.6, COL 31.5	PIT 20, COL 27
Win chance	COL 62%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	4	1.54	1	42%	1
COL N. Kadri	3.1	2	0.86	0	31%	0
COL M. Necas	3.0	2	1.24	1	35%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.6	3	0.95	0	37%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	4	1.07	1	26%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	3	0.74	2	30%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	1	0.66	1	26%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.4	1	0.55	1	23%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	0	0.74	0	31%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	3	0.65	3	21%	2
PIT E. Karlsson	2.0	4	0.61	3	10%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.8	1	0.62	1	24%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.8	2	0.36	0	6%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	0	0.37	0	17%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	0	0.51	0	20%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	1	0.51	0	11%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	5	0.37	1	9%	1
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	1	0.38	0	17%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.5	1	0.37	0	7%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	1	0.28	2	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	1	0.34	1	7%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	2	0.23	2	12%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.3	0	0.34	0	15%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.2	1	0.20	2	11%	1
COL J. Drury	1.2	1	0.34	0	13%	0
COL N. Roy	1.1	2	0.38	0	15%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.0	0	0.23	0	7%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	0	0.21	1	10%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.8	0	0.23	0	6%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.25	1	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.21	1	2%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.7	1	0.20	0	2%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	0	0.17	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.