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Game Recap
PIT6
DET3
PIT beat DET 6-3, with the chances close: 3.43 expected goals to 2.93. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Pettersson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Blomqvist stopped 29 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 3:46DETA. DeBrincat0.17 xG
- 1st 15:02PITA. Beauvillier0.07 xG
- 2nd 2:55PITA. Beauvillier0.45 xG
- 2nd 3:53PITD. O'Connor0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:28PITM. Pettersson0.01 xG
- 2nd 12:32DETV. Tarasenko0.03 xG
- 3rd 1:42PITE. KarlssonPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 8:13DETA. DeBrincatPP0.27 xG
- 3rd 12:21PITK. Hayes0.31 xG
Team Stats
PITDET
28Shots on goal32
3.43Expected goals2.93
53Shot attempts60
255v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play1/5
22Hits22
16Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways14
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.43 xGDET 2.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:09 | 2:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:27 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:51 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:53 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:55 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:35 | 0:21 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:48 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:07 | 1:57 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 21:02 | 2:07 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:41 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blomqvist | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 59:46 | Win |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:09 | 3:47 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:33 | 5:18 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:13 | 5:19 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 2:47 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 5:23 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 4:31 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:03 | 0:12 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:06 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 2:52 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 2:48 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:05 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:43 | 2:47 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:11 | 5:29 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:18 | 0:15 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:06 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.3, DET 3.5 | PIT 6, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 32.8, DET 31.0 | PIT 28, DET 32 |
| Win chance | DET 54% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 3.8 | 1 | 1.19 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.4 | 4 | 1.10 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 3.3 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.3 | 5 | 0.88 | 3 | 31% | 2 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.6 | 3 | 0.84 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.6 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.4 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.0 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT L. Eller | 2.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.8 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.4 | 4 | 0.36 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET O. Maatta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.