Game Recap: PIT 0, EDM 4, October 25, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT0

FinalFri, Oct 25, 2024Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat PIT 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 5.48 expected goals to 2.48. EDM outshot PIT 50 to 27. V. Arvidsson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Ekholm had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Skinner stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	0	0	0
EDM	0	2	2	4

2nd 13:00EDML. Draisaitl0.01 xG
2nd 17:35EDME. Bouchard0.10 xG
3rd 0:16EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.19 xG
3rd 7:00EDMM. EkholmPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

PITEDM

27Shots on goal50

2.48Expected goals5.48

56Shot attempts91

225v5 shots on goal47

0/2Power play1/2

21Hits11

20Blocked shots17

7Penalty minutes9

14Giveaways10

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.48 xGEDM 5.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT27 on goal, 0 scored

EDM50 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	0	2	19:23	2:33
B. Rust	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	18:45	2:33
S. Crosby	C	1	0	0	-1	0	18:27	2:32
L. Eller	C	3	2	0	-1	0	16:57	0:00
R. Rakell	RW	2	1	2	0	0	16:44	0:38
D. O'Connor	LW	3	0	1	-1	0	16:33	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	0	0	0	15:51	0:39
A. Beauvillier	RW	3	0	0	-1	0	13:37	0:00
J. Puljujarvi	RW	1	2	1	-1	0	10:56	0:38
N. Acciari	C	2	2	3	-1	0	10:46	0:00
C. Glass	C	1	1	0	-1	0	10:40	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	8:38	0:38
K. Letang	D	3	2	2	-2	0	22:31	2:42
E. Karlsson	D	2	0	0	-1	0	21:41	2:33
M. Grzelcyk	D	1	1	4	-1	0	21:06	0:29
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	2	-2	5	20:57	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	2	2	0	0	16:58	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	1	5	3	0	0	15:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Blomqvist	50	46	4	.920	59:56	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	3	3	4	0	0	+2	0	17:33	0:56
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:04	2:45
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	17:51	2:45
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	+2	0	17:44	2:41
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	14:09	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	+2	2	20:07	2:43
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:27	0:52
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:08	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:38	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:15	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:12	0:53
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:20	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	1	1	2	6	1	2	+2	0	22:18	1:01
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	1	0	3	+2	0	21:53	2:37
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:02	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	7	20:34	0:57
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:50	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, EDM 3.6	PIT 0, EDM 4
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	PIT 28.2, EDM 32.6	PIT 27, EDM 50
Win chance	EDM 61%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	5	1.82	0	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.4	6	0.93	1	40%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	1	1.04	0	32%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	2	0.76	0	29%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	1	1.11	2	19%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	3	1.40	1	43%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.7	4	0.71	3	24%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.6	1	0.69	0	27%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	0	0.85	0	27%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	6	0.59	2	12%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.0	2	0.51	0	21%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	4	0.94	1	25%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	2	0.42	0	10%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	1.9	2	0.70	0	14%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	0	0.54	0	19%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.9	3	0.41	0	18%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.7	3	0.31	0	12%	0
PIT L. Eller	1.6	3	0.35	0	15%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.6	3	0.55	0	11%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.6	1	0.34	0	13%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.4	1	0.25	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	0	0.50	0	22%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.3	2	0.29	0	12%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	3	0.30	0	10%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.30	0	6%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.1	3	0.32	0	15%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.34	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.0	3	0.28	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.0	0	0.30	0	11%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.0	4	0.21	1	10%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	2	0.20	0	11%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	2	0.16	0	8%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.7	1	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.