Game Recap: PIT 5, LAK 1, January 20, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PIT5

FinalMon, Jan 20, 2025Every game that night

LAK1

PIT beat LAK 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.83 expected goals to 1.88. A. Beauvillier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Beauvillier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	2	2	1	5
LAK	0	1	0	1

1st 10:09PITK. HayesPP0.07 xG
1st 14:09PITS. Crosby0.03 xG
2nd 8:26PITE. Malkin0.12 xG
2nd 16:02LAKA. KempePP0.19 xG
2nd 19:00PITC. Glass0.11 xG
3rd 6:57PITA. Beauvillier0.62 xG

Team Stats

PITLAK

32Shots on goal26

2.83Expected goals1.88

60Shot attempts61

305v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play1/3

7Hits18

14Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways15

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.83 xGLAK 1.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT33 on goal, 5 scored

LAK26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	17:54	0:43
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	1	2	6	0	0	+2	0	16:16	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	1	1	2	0	0	0	+1	0	11:25	0:30
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	14:36	0:32
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	13:59	0:30
P. Tomasino	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	12:10	0:48
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	17:51	1:01
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	15:13	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	14:51	1:01
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:33	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:53	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:35	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	26:20	0:59
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	24:07	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	18:14	0:59
O. Pickering	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	15:09	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:34	0:32
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	15:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	17:47	3:37
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	6	2	0	-1	0	17:33	3:16
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	20:21	4:49
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	19:46	3:45
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:48	1:12
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:58	0:04
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:27	1:16
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:17	1:39
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	2	16:11	0:02
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	10:34	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:32	3:52
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	21:55	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-2	0	19:32	0:01
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:07	0:07
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	14:27	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:05	1:05
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	32	28	5	.875	60:00	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBlake Lizotte PIT Faces LAK, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.5, LAK 3.1	PIT 5, LAK 1
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	PIT 25.0, LAK 29.9	PIT 32, LAK 26
Win chance	LAK 61%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	6	1.10	1	39%	1
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	5	0.99	0	33%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	2	0.93	2	29%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.5	1	0.72	0	28%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	1	0.62	0	23%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	1	0.64	0	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	2	0.74	0	22%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	2	0.57	0	11%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.8	0	0.67	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	1	0.44	1	10%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.8	0	0.46	0	7%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.7	3	0.55	0	21%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.7	3	0.65	1	22%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	1	0.98	1	27%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	0	0.32	2	14%	1
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.5	1	0.42	0	8%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.4	0	0.35	0	8%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.4	0	0.50	0	16%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.4	6	0.26	2	12%	1
PIT C. Glass	1.3	3	0.30	1	11%	1
PIT D. O'Connor	1.3	1	0.30	0	13%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.3	0	0.40	1	6%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.3	0	0.34	1	12%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	2	0.25	0	6%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	2	0.20	0	8%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.0	2	0.30	1	4%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.30	1	4%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	1	0.27	0	12%	0
PIT P. Joseph	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	3	0.17	0	10%	0
PIT M. Nieto	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.7	2	0.14	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	2	0.14	0	7%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.5	1	0.09	1	3%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.3	1	0.05	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.