Game Recap: PIT 4, LAK 2, October 16, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT4

FinalThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

LAK2

PIT beat LAK 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.74. E. Karlsson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Q. Byfield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Silovs stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	2	2	4
LAK	2	0	0	2

1st 4:24LAKW. Foegele0.02 xG
1st 9:04LAKK. Fiala0.23 xG
2nd 6:37PITE. MalkinPP0.07 xG
2nd 7:18PITC. Dewar0.08 xG
3rd 6:50PITF. HallanderSH0.14 xG
3rd 19:29PITS. CrosbyEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

PITLAK

26Shots on goal32

3.52Expected goals2.74

48Shot attempts61

205v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play0/2

13Hits23

15Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways16

0Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.52 xGLAK 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT26 on goal, 4 scored

LAK32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	21:11	1:47
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:37	1:47
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	4	17:15	1:47
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:01	2:03
N. Acciari	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	12:18	0:00
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	12:09	0:00
F. Hallander	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:01	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	15:50	1:02
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	15:15	0:11
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:56	0:46
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:38	0:46
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	11:21	0:51
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	19:52	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:45	1:47
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	21:25	0:16
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	22:00	1:02
H. Brunicke	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:50	0:00
C. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	2	18:06	1:53
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:38	1:21
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:37	2:07
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:45	0:32
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	5	3	0	-1	0	15:22	0:32
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	2	18:56	2:02
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:42	2:07
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:43	1:20
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	3	5	0	-2	0	14:30	1:36
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:16	2:22
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:13	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:08	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:38	0:08
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	21:50	1:53
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	19:53	0:24
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	19:11	0:08
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	17:39	1:35
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	17:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	25	22	3	.880	58:53	Loss
P. Copley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust16:50S. Crosby14:34R. Rakell15:10

Line 2E. Malkin14:58A. Mantha14:48J. Brazeau13:10

Line 3B. Lizotte12:57C. Dewar10:45N. Acciari10:41

Line 4T. Novak11:52P. Tomasino10:30F. Hallander9:58

Pair 1K. Letang18:29R. Shea17:52

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon17:19E. Karlsson16:45

Pair 3C. Jones16:00H. Brunicke17:42

LAK

Line 1A. Kempe15:47A. Kuzmenko15:28P. Danault14:16

Line 2K. Fiala14:23Q. Byfield14:42J. Armia14:35

Line 3T. Moore13:39W. Foegele13:26A. Turcotte11:54

Line 4A. Laferriere12:20S. Helenius8:13J. Malott8:08

Pair 1C. Ceci17:17M. Anderson17:28

Pair 2D. Doughty18:06B. Dumoulin18:12

Pair 3J. Edmundson16:22B. Clarke16:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBlake Lizotte PIT Faces LAK, his team until May 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.8, LAK 3.4	PIT 4, LAK 2
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	PIT 26.4, LAK 29.9	PIT 26, LAK 32
Win chance	LAK 60%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.3	2	0.96	1	34%	1
LAK A. Kempe	3.2	5	1.06	0	38%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	5	0.75	1	27%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	5	0.55	1	23%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	1	0.93	1	29%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.3	0	0.61	1	24%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	6	0.85	1	26%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	3	0.49	0	19%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.2	1	0.65	1	25%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.0	1	0.52	2	12%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.8	2	0.67	1	21%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.8	0	0.82	0	30%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	0	0.37	0	9%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	0	0.70	0	20%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	2	0.43	0	8%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.6	4	0.61	0	12%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.4	0	0.33	0	12%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.3	0	0.40	0	16%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.3	3	0.47	0	18%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	1	0.37	1	15%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.2	2	0.25	1	10%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	2	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	0	0.30	0	6%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.1	2	0.28	0	14%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	0	0.25	1	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.0	1	0.31	0	5%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	3	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.15	2	2%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	3	0.17	1	10%	0
PIT F. Hallander	0.8	2	0.21	1	9%	1
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	1	0.24	0	8%	0
PIT C. Jones	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.15	1	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	0	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.