Game Recap: PIT 3, MIN 1, March 9, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT3

FinalSun, Mar 9, 2025Every game that night

MIN1

PIT beat MIN 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.10 expected goals to 3.25. MIN outshot PIT 30 to 22. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Zuccarello had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. T. Jarry stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	1	2	3
MIN	0	0	1	1

2nd 15:22PITE. MalkinPP0.51 xG
3rd 9:21PITS. Crosby0.14 xG
3rd 14:54MINR. HartmanPP0.12 xG
3rd 18:47PITS. CrosbyEN0.55 xG

Team Stats

PITMIN

22Shots on goal30

2.10Expected goals3.25

47Shot attempts74

175v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play1/6

17Hits20

24Blocked shots20

12Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways13

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.10 xGMIN 3.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT21 on goal, 3 scored

MIN30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	2	19:27	1:56
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	17:11	1:55
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	4	15:55	1:25
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	18:37	2:01
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:53	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	15:23	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:14	1:20
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:21	2:05
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	12:01	1:15
E. Bemstrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:17	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3:53	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	0	0	27:54	1:23
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	21:15	2:06
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	2	19:19	1:14
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	24:18	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	4	14:23	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	20:22	5:34
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	18:03	5:15
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-2	0	25:10	6:11
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	6	1	1	-2	2	24:13	6:49
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	21:49	6:04
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:43	4:38
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:58	5:08
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:28	5:39
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:24	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	7:00	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:39	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:10	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	19:45	4:18
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	27:30	7:02
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	20:36	0:02
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	14:05	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	12:19	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Fleury	21	19	2	.905	57:35	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConnor Dewar PIT Faces MIN, his team until Mar 20240 SOG
Old teamJustin Brazeau PIT Faces MIN, his team until May 20250 SOG
HometownTommy Novak PIT Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.8, MIN 3.1	PIT 3, MIN 1
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	PIT 29.1, MIN 28.1	PIT 22, MIN 30
Win chance	MIN 54%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	6	1.02	0	33%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	3	1.03	2	31%	2
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	0	0.74	1	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.6	2	0.74	1	14%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	1	0.80	0	29%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.2	6	0.93	0	24%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.1	2	0.49	1	10%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	4	0.53	1	21%	1
PIT K. Hayes	2.0	0	0.41	0	16%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	4	0.78	0	26%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.8	3	0.70	1	23%	1
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.7	0	0.54	0	21%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.6	0	0.42	0	17%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	3	0.55	0	11%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	1	0.49	1	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.6	2	0.48	1	11%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.6	2	0.43	0	15%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	2	0.47	0	18%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.5	1	0.37	0	9%	0
MIN G. Nyquist	1.5	1	0.67	0	20%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.35	1	4%	0
PIT E. Bemstrom	1.2	1	0.24	0	10%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	0	0.43	0	18%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.25	0	13%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.0	1	0.25	0	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.18	0	10%	0
PIT C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.24	0	4%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.8	0	0.21	0	7%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.17	0	6%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
PIT C. Dewar	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
PIT V. Kolyachonok	0.7	2	0.16	0	4%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.3	1	0.06	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.