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Game Recap
PIT6
MTL3
PIT beat MTL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.11 expected goals to 2.94. E. Malkin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Jarry stopped 25 of 28.
Team Stats
PITMTL
30Shots on goal28
4.11Expected goals2.94
70Shot attempts57
275v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play1/2
23Hits28
16Blocked shots22
6Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways8
9Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 4.11 xGMTL 2.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:28 |
| L. Eller | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:13 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:02 | 0:27 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:29 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:33 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:19 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:53 | 0:48 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:15 | 1:12 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:40 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:31 | 1:31 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:13 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:04 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:09 | 2:06 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:55 | 2:09 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:38 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:48 | 0:47 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:43 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:42 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:51 | 2:09 |
| K. Guhle | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 19:07 | 0:02 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:42 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 57:18 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.5, MTL 3.1 | PIT 6, MTL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 34.2, MTL 28.7 | PIT 30, MTL 28 |
| Win chance | PIT 56% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.9 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.5 | 0 | 1.17 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 3.5 | 5 | 0.88 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.91 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.6 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.5 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.79 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.4 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 2.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 2.0 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.9 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.9 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.9 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.