Game Recap: PIT 9, MTL 2, December 12, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT9

FinalThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

MTL2

PIT beat MTL 9-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.05 expected goals to 2.37. PIT outshot MTL 33 to 23. B. Rust scored three for PIT. B. Rust had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. T. Jarry stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	2	6	9
MTL	1	1	0	2

1st 2:12MTLN. Suzuki0.12 xG
1st 4:18PITR. RakellPP0.28 xG
2nd 10:03PITB. Rust0.16 xG
2nd 13:27PITB. Rust0.11 xG
2nd 14:36MTLJ. Armia0.10 xG
3rd 4:40PITR. Rakell0.30 xG
3rd 7:42PITK. LetangPP0.07 xG
3rd 8:41PITA. Beauvillier0.07 xG
3rd 11:56PITB. Rust0.04 xG
3rd 14:20PITM. Nieto0.10 xG
3rd 18:42PITN. Acciari0.54 xG

Team Stats

PITMTL

33Shots on goal23

4.05Expected goals2.37

66Shot attempts38

295v5 shots on goal17

2/3Power play0/4

11Hits26

8Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways15

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.05 xGMTL 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT33 on goal, 9 scored

MTL21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	2	2	4	4	0	0	+3	0	16:00	2:35
B. Rust	RW	3	1	4	6	1	0	+3	0	15:43	1:57
S. Crosby	C	0	3	3	3	3	0	+3	0	15:40	3:01
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	15:04	3:01
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	0	14:58	1:40
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	2	13:31	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	13:26	0:00
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	13:11	0:09
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	2	13:01	0:10
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:44	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:25	2:10
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:32	1:51
K. Letang	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	2	24:12	3:01
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	17:24	2:54
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+3	0	23:09	0:17
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:10	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	+3	0	19:26	2:04
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	2	14:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	20:24	5:23
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:46	5:14
J. Armia	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	15:38	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	-2	0	14:00	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	11:26	2:13
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	18:08	5:22
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	2	16:14	5:21
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:13	2:14
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:58	2:18
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	13:02	2:39
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	4	12:40	0:22
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	12:09	0:28
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	23:01	3:08
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-3	0	22:20	0:14
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	7	3	-2	0	21:01	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:48	5:04
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	12:53	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	12:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	26	20	6	.769	48:41	Loss
C. Primeau	7	4	3	.571	11:19

Storylines That Played Out

HometownKris Letang PIT Plays in his hometown1 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.3, MTL 3.1	PIT 9, MTL 2
Total goals	6.4	11
Shots on goal	PIT 31.1, MTL 28.3	PIT 33, MTL 23
Win chance	PIT 52%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	2	0.82	1	33%	0
PIT S. Crosby	3.0	3	1.09	3	34%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	6	0.83	4	32%	3
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	4	0.70	4	28%	2
MTL P. Laine	2.4	1	0.78	0	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	4	0.80	0	14%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	1	0.87	0	28%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.2	3	0.64	2	12%	1
MTL M. Matheson	2.2	3	0.79	0	14%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	2	0.92	1	28%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	0	0.47	0	19%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	2	0.60	1	22%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.9	1	0.52	0	18%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.7	2	0.38	1	16%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.7	3	0.40	1	15%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.6	2	0.39	1	17%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.5	1	0.59	0	18%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	2	0.37	0	18%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.5	2	0.47	0	15%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.5	1	0.28	0	7%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.49	0	20%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.4	1	0.30	1	13%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	1	0.69	0	5%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	2	0.43	0	15%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.3	0	0.38	1	16%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.2	0	0.42	0	5%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	3	0.36	0	8%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.34	2	4%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	0	0.31	1	16%	0
MTL J. Barron	1.0	0	0.25	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	2	0.20	1	12%	1
MTL J. Struble	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.44	1	13%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.0	1	0.21	1	10%	1
PIT R. Graves	1.0	0	0.20	0	5%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.6	0	0.25	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.