Game Recap: PIT 5, NSH 4 (OT), December 19, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT5

Final/OTThu, Dec 19, 2024Every game that night

NSH4

PIT beat NSH 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.45 expected goals to 3.05. B. Rust led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. Blankenburg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. T. Jarry stopped 22 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PIT	1	2	1	1	5
NSH	2	1	1	0	4

1st 3:51NSHJ. Marchessault0.22 xG
1st 16:21PITB. Rust0.28 xG
1st 17:57NSHL. EvangelistaPP0.26 xG
2nd 3:38NSHS. Stamkos0.12 xG
2nd 7:54PITS. CrosbyPP0.10 xG
2nd 9:08PITR. Rakell0.01 xG
3rd 7:44NSHB. Skjei0.16 xG
3rd 11:36PITE. Karlsson0.04 xG
OT 1:07PITB. Rust0.12 xG

Team Stats

PITNSH

20Shots on goal26

1.45Expected goals3.05

40Shot attempts61

185v5 shots on goal13

1/3Power play1/5

15Hits24

16Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways12

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 1.45 xGNSH 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT20 on goal, 5 scored

NSH26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	2	2	4	5	0	1	+3	0	20:57	3:08
S. Crosby	C	1	3	4	2	1	1	+3	0	17:24	3:31
R. Rakell	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+3	2	17:50	2:59
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	18:47	2:59
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	16:51	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:08	3:08
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	15:38	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:02	2:26
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	4	12:30	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	11:15	2:49
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:07	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5:16	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	2	20:49	2:54
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	4	2	2	0	0	23:00	2:45
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:42	3:01
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	20:28	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:06	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	26	22	4	.846	61:07	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	17:57	5:33
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:58	5:59
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	2	19:12	5:51
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:38	5:02
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	18:38	6:01
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	16:21	3:32
L. Evangelista	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:39	3:57
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	11:38	4:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	13:44	0:07
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:25	0:09
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:49	0:00
B. Skjei	D	1	1	2	3	0	2	-1	2	22:51	3:39
L. Schenn	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+1	0	14:22	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	20:02	2:48
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	19:16	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	18:10	0:11
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	14:38	0:39

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	20	15	5	.750	60:57	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTommy Novak PIT Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20251 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, NSH 3.3	PIT 5, NSH 4
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	PIT 30.2, NSH 32.8	PIT 20, NSH 26
Win chance	NSH 55%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.5	1	1.02	2	37%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.0	2	0.84	1	34%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	2	0.95	4	29%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.7	5	0.72	4	28%	2
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	3	0.96	1	35%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	2	0.64	2	25%	1
NSH B. Skjei	2.3	3	0.58	2	14%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	4	0.68	2	15%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	2	0.49	1	17%	1
PIT K. Letang	2.1	4	0.54	1	13%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	0	0.74	1	24%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	0	0.55	0	19%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.7	3	0.45	0	15%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	4	0.70	1	24%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.6	0	0.35	0	13%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.6	3	0.55	1	20%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.5	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	2	0.72	1	21%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.4	1	0.36	0	8%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.4	1	0.18	1	5%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.3	0	0.35	1	14%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	4	0.30	0	8%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.29	0	14%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.3	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.3	0	0.35	0	14%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.2	0	0.24	0	3%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.32	1	5%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.2	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	0	0.27	0	10%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.1	0	0.17	0	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	0	0.19	0	11%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.16	0	5%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.6	0	0.20	0	7%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.6	0	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.