NYI beat PIT 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 3.18. PIT outshot NYI 35 to 26. E. Malkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Pageau had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Sorokin stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 2nd 5:27PITS. Crosby0.14 xG
- 2nd 12:21NYIK. Palmieri0.17 xG
- 2nd 13:37PITE. MalkinPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 7:44PITM. Bunting0.21 xG
- 3rd 9:41NYIS. HolmstromPP0.21 xG
- 3rd 12:48NYIJ. Pageau0.28 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.18 xGNYI 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 5:16 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:46 | 5:12 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 5:14 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:29 | 0:59 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:35 | 0:01 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:01 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:42 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:01 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:01 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:40 | 1:03 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:43 | 3:15 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:47 | 5:12 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:17 | 0:23 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:15 | 0:59 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:01 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 64:54 | OT loss |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:45 | 4:04 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:53 | 3:28 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 2:28 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 2:31 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:25 | 1:52 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:54 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:27 | 3:30 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:22 | 2:07 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 29:03 | 2:07 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 30:02 | 4:13 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:48 | 0:00 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 65:00 | Win |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.1, NYI 3.3 | PIT 3, NYI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 31.9, NYI 33.3 | PIT 35, NYI 26 |
| Win chance | NYI 55% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.1 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 5 | 1.08 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.9 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.5 | 5 | 0.81 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.1 | 5 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| PIT L. Eller | 1.9 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 5 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.9 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.