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Game Recap
PIT3
NYI6
NYI beat PIT 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.57 expected goals to 2.56. NYI outshot PIT 34 to 25. C. Cizikas led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). I. Sorokin stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| NYI | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 14:47NYIJ. Pageau0.41 xG
- 1st 16:03PITM. BuntingPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 5:39NYIA. Duclair0.23 xG
- 2nd 8:36NYIA. Lee0.27 xG
- 2nd 9:39NYIC. Cizikas0.06 xG
- 2nd 13:49PITN. Acciari0.16 xG
- 2nd 19:56PITR. Rakell0.05 xG
- 3rd 14:43NYIC. Cizikas0.12 xG
- 3rd 19:38NYIA. LeeEN0.70 xG
Team Stats
PITNYI
25Shots on goal34
2.56Expected goals5.57
45Shot attempts67
155v5 shots on goal28
1/4Power play0/2
27Hits19
15Blocked shots7
4Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways20
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.56 xGNYI 5.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:41 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 3:14 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:02 | 3:41 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:09 |
| N. Acciari | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:07 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:26 | 4:43 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 20:57 | 3:03 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 2:03 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:17 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:33 | 3:07 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 24:18 | 3:06 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:57 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:04 | 3:51 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:20 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 33 | 29 | 5 | .879 | 57:21 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lee | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:43 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:17 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:59 | 1:31 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:38 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:29 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:39 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 2:12 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:39 | 1:54 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:36 | 0:12 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 2:54 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:08 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:23 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.0, NYI 3.3 | PIT 3, NYI 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 28.9, NYI 31.0 | PIT 25, NYI 34 |
| Win chance | NYI 55% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.6 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.6 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.4 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.4 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.4 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 2 | 9% | 2 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.7 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.