Game Recap: PIT 2, NYR 4, December 6, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalFri, Dec 6, 2024Every game that night

NYR4

NYR beat PIT 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.40 expected goals to 2.97. NYR outshot PIT 32 to 22. A. Panarin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Smith had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. I. Shesterkin stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	1	1	2
NYR	0	2	2	4

2nd 6:19PITB. Lizotte0.09 xG
2nd 7:28NYRA. Panarin0.13 xG
2nd 19:58NYRA. Panarin0.13 xG
3rd 8:29PITP. Tomasino0.12 xG
3rd 9:53NYRR. Smith0.07 xG
3rd 18:22NYRV. Trocheck0.12 xG

Team Stats

PITNYR

22Shots on goal32

2.97Expected goals2.40

54Shot attempts58

135v5 shots on goal25

0/4Power play0/3

14Hits19

12Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways14

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.97 xGNYR 2.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT22 on goal, 2 scored

NYR31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	14:46	3:23
P. Tomasino	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	13:07	3:27
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	12:57	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	10:54	0:01
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	20:43	4:06
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	20:36	4:13
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	4	4	1	-1	0	19:39	3:48
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:08	4:03
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:40	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	11:30	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:26	3:25
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	23:31	4:07
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	19:27	0:25
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	23:27	3:39
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	21:22	3:22
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	2	14:38	0:16
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	32	28	4	.875	58:29	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	1	2	3	1	2	1	+3	2	21:38	4:08
A. Panarin	LW	2	1	3	3	0	0	+2	2	20:52	4:09
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	2	15:58	1:26
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:48	4:13
C. Kreider	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	20:09	4:14
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	6	1	0	+1	0	15:18	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:42	1:25
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:45	1:30
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:49	1:26
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	9:08	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	7:13	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	6:11	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	+1	0	21:48	0:05
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	25:26	4:08
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	21:08	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+2	0	21:06	0:05
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	14:03	1:26
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	10:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, NYR 3.5	PIT 2, NYR 4
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	PIT 32.4, NYR 32.7	PIT 22, NYR 32
Win chance	NYR 60%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	3	1.26	3	34%	2
PIT S. Crosby	3.0	4	0.96	0	30%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	5	0.69	0	27%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.7	1	0.81	1	38%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.7	1	0.91	3	28%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	4	0.59	0	24%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	2	0.97	1	29%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.3	2	0.71	2	26%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	0	0.63	1	11%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	2	0.74	0	24%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	1	0.58	0	23%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	1	0.52	0	10%	0
NYR F. Chytil	2.0	2	0.50	0	18%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	0	0.50	1	18%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	2	0.99	0	14%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.8	0	0.33	0	14%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.8	3	0.43	1	14%	1
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.7	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.7	6	0.56	1	19%	1
NYR K. Kakko	1.6	2	0.44	0	18%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.5	0	0.29	1	11%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.3	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.2	1	0.36	0	6%	0
NYR V. Mancini	1.2	1	0.36	0	6%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.2	0	0.35	1	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.27	1	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.2	1	0.29	1	12%	1
NYR K. Miller	1.2	0	0.36	0	8%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	0	0.19	0	11%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	2	0.27	0	3%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	4	0.28	0	5%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	1	0.20	0	12%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.6	0	0.21	0	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.6	0	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.