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Game Recap
PIT3
NYR2
PIT beat NYR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.53 expected goals to 1.70. V. Trocheck led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Nedeljkovic stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 8:31NYRV. Trocheck0.16 xG
- 2nd 2:25PITB. Lizotte0.11 xG
- 2nd 3:39NYRA. Fox0.07 xG
- 2nd 9:07PITR. Rakell0.20 xG
- 2nd 11:59PITP. TomasinoPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
PITNYR
26Shots on goal24
2.53Expected goals1.70
57Shot attempts59
205v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play0/2
20Hits24
22Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways17
2Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.53 xGNYR 1.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 2:51 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:22 | 2:30 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:28 | 2:58 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 2:27 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:57 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:43 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:59 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 1:19 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 2:28 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:30 | 3:04 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:04 | 2:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:53 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:21 | 0:04 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 59:54 | Win |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:07 | 2:18 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:40 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 | 3:37 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 3:39 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 3:20 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 3:40 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:21 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:21 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:27 | 2:39 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:58 | 1:21 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:02 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 57:26 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.6, NYR 3.1 | PIT 3, NYR 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 28.6, NYR 30.3 | PIT 26, NYR 24 |
| Win chance | NYR 59% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 2 | 1.28 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.9 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 0 | 0.79 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 1 | 0.82 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.4 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.4 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 2 | 1.02 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.0 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.4 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.