Game Recap: PIT 2, NYR 3 (SO), February 28, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PIT2

Final/SOSat, Feb 28, 2026Every game that night

NYR3

NYR beat PIT 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.49 expected goals to 3.58. PIT outshot NYR 34 to 25. E. Malkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. I. Shesterkin stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	1	1	0	0	2
NYR	0	1	1	1	3

1st 2:08PITA. ManthaPP0.08 xG
2nd 1:59PITR. Shea0.02 xG
2nd 10:00NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.20 xG
3rd 2:57NYRT. Raddysh0.08 xG

Team Stats

PITNYR

34Shots on goal25

3.58Expected goals3.49

61Shot attempts68

215v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play1/2

15Hits28

19Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes16

14Giveaways15

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.58 xGNYR 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT34 on goal, 2 scored

NYR25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	19:45	3:29
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	15:41	3:31
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	14:29	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	7	2	0	0	0	20:28	3:34
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	20:08	3:30
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	6	1	1	-1	0	17:12	1:07
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:41	1:11
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	6	1	1	0	0	15:22	1:09
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	14:06	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:20	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:01	1:07
A. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:54	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	24:14	3:22
R. Shea	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:33	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	1	1	1	2	5	+1	0	16:16	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	23:51	1:20
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:57	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	25	23	2	.920	64:37	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	22:36	1:49
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	20:53	1:48
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	12	16:47	1:51
B. Brisson	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	10:39	1:02
T. Raddysh	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:48	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:13	1:53
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	19:17	0:58
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:59	1:03
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:36	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	13:13	1:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	12:39	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	9:41	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	2	24:17	1:03
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	25:33	1:48
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	20:28	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:32	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:38	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	34	32	2	.941	65:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin15:09E. Chinakhov13:42T. Novak12:44

Line 2R. Rakell13:57B. Rust13:23A. Hayes11:31

Line 3B. Kindel14:05J. Brazeau11:54A. Mantha11:47

Line 4B. Lizotte13:38N. Acciari12:13C. Dewar12:08

Pair 1K. Letang20:09S. Girard19:07

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon17:56E. Karlsson17:21

Pair 3R. Shea14:46C. Clifton15:00

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière16:17W. Cuylle15:31V. Trocheck12:10

Line 2J. Miller14:51G. Perreault15:30M. Zibanejad16:18

Line 3T. Kartye12:39N. Laba10:53C. Sheary13:14

Line 4S. Carrick9:41T. Raddysh9:48B. Brisson9:37

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:37A. Fox19:36

Pair 2W. Borgen16:21B. Schneider16:13

Pair 3M. Robertson15:43S. Morrow15:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.3, NYR 2.9	PIT 2, NYR 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	PIT 29.4, NYR 25.2	PIT 34, NYR 25
Win chance	PIT 55%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.7	5	0.96	1	31%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	0	0.72	0	26%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	2	0.80	1	29%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	7	0.88	0	25%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.2	1	1.02	1	31%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	0	0.85	1	27%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	3	0.63	1	12%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.9	2	0.47	0	19%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	2	0.49	0	21%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	6	0.46	0	18%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	1	0.92	0	15%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	1	0.46	0	9%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	2	0.58	0	22%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	1	0.64	1	22%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.6	6	0.53	0	19%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	0	0.44	0	18%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	1	0.37	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	3	0.42	1	10%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	0	0.28	0	7%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.4	2	0.33	0	15%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	2	0.31	0	12%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.2	0	0.28	0	8%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
PIT R. Shea	1.1	1	0.30	1	5%	1
NYR S. Morrow	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
PIT S. Girard	1.0	1	0.27	0	5%	0
NYR B. Brisson	1.0	0	0.25	1	9%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.25	0	3%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	0	0.36	1	14%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.9	3	0.29	0	12%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.22	1	4%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.26	1	11%	1
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
NYR T. Kartye	0.9	2	0.22	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.