Game Recap: PIT 1, SEA 4, January 25, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT1

FinalSat, Jan 25, 2025Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat PIT 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.94 expected goals to 3.30. J. McCann led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Daccord stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	1	0	1
SEA	0	2	2	4

2nd 2:16SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.08 xG
2nd 4:34PITS. Crosby0.22 xG
2nd 17:46SEAV. DunnPP0.06 xG
3rd 5:06SEAE. Tolvanen0.18 xG
3rd 13:06SEAM. Beniers0.21 xG

Team Stats

PITSEA

29Shots on goal25

3.30Expected goals1.94

69Shot attempts45

275v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play1/3

21Hits14

11Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

9Giveaways8

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.30 xGSEA 1.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT29 on goal, 1 scored

SEA24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	20:37	3:32
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	20:34	3:28
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:32	0:28
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:44	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	18:15	1:26
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	16:05	0:34
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:33	2:32
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	13:18	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	12:38	0:31
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:12	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:52	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:00	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	2	22:29	3:29
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:53	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	21:48	2:21
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	19:21	1:39
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:05	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Blomqvist	25	21	4	.840	59:36	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	19:09	2:45
J. McCann	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	17:45	2:12
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	18:12	2:24
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:35	1:51
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:55	2:46
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	14:42	1:49
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	2	14:03	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:28	0:49
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:02	2:44
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:34	0:00
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:14	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:32	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:33	2:44
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:48	1:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:06	1:51
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	20:50	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:20	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, SEA 3.1	PIT 1, SEA 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	PIT 28.0, SEA 28.9	PIT 29, SEA 25
Win chance	SEA 53%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	2.7	3	1.05	1	31%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.5	3	0.57	0	15%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	2	0.73	1	28%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.4	2	0.72	0	27%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	3	0.83	2	31%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	1	0.64	0	13%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.1	1	0.73	1	24%	1
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	3	0.73	1	15%	1
PIT K. Letang	2.0	4	0.52	1	12%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	1	0.70	1	25%	1
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	1	0.63	0	22%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.8	3	0.62	1	22%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.7	0	0.73	0	23%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	0	0.54	1	18%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.7	4	0.40	0	15%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.6	3	0.33	0	14%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	3	0.46	1	19%	1
PIT C. Glass	1.5	1	0.36	0	13%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	0	0.29	0	7%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.4	3	0.43	0	14%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.4	3	0.33	0	14%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	1	0.34	0	15%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	1	0.35	0	4%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	1	0.57	1	20%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.1	0	0.42	0	8%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.1	1	0.22	0	3%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.72	2	20%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.35	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	0	0.18	0	11%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
PIT M. Nieto	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.6	0	0.18	0	6%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.5	2	0.09	0	3%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.3	1	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.