Game Recap: PIT 1, SJS 2, January 27, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT1

FinalMon, Jan 27, 2025Every game that night

SJS2

SJS beat PIT 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.31 expected goals to 3.67. B. Rust had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. Y. Askarov stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	0	1	1
SJS	0	1	1	2

2nd 7:41SJSM. Granlund0.12 xG
3rd 0:24PITS. Crosby0.03 xG
3rd 3:41SJSM. Celebrini0.15 xG

Team Stats

PITSJS

30Shots on goal28

3.67Expected goals2.31

81Shot attempts51

215v5 shots on goal24

0/4Power play0/3

24Hits14

10Blocked shots24

6Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways17

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.67 xGSJS 2.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT29 on goal, 1 scored

SJS26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	23:20	5:30
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	2	21:35	4:22
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	21:58	4:19
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	18:33	4:30
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:36	1:40
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	15:05	2:44
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:38	0:04
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:04	1:57
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:36	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	10:28	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:27	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:46	3:42
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	24:18	2:50
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	22:54	1:40
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:56	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:47	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	28	26	2	.929	57:56	Loss
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	21:55	4:16
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:29	3:39
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	18:47	4:15
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:44	0:19
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:43	4:14
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:34	0:21
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:33	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	12:04	0:17
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:46	0:00
C. White	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:24	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	24:11	0:02
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	2	9	0	4	23:37	4:21
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	23:18	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:14	0:10
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+1	0	14:26	0:51
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	14:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Nedeljkovic SJS Faces PIT, his team until Apr 202526 saves on 28
Old teamErik Karlsson PIT Faces SJS, his team until Apr 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.3, SJS 2.8	PIT 1, SJS 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	PIT 31.0, SJS 28.1	PIT 30, SJS 28
Win chance	PIT 57%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.1	2	0.87	1	27%	1
PIT S. Crosby	3.0	2	1.23	1	35%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	1	0.87	0	32%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	4	0.72	1	30%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	6	0.86	1	31%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	2	0.80	0	15%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.5	1	0.53	0	15%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.2	2	0.65	0	14%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	4	0.71	0	25%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	4	0.58	0	21%	0
PIT K. Hayes	2.0	0	0.49	0	19%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.0	3	0.85	1	18%	1
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.9	2	0.41	0	18%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.7	3	0.42	0	17%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.7	0	0.52	0	17%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.7	3	0.73	0	20%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.6	0	0.41	0	15%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.6	1	0.57	1	19%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.4	0	0.35	0	17%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.3	0	0.34	0	8%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.3	2	0.43	1	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.26	0	6%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.2	4	0.29	0	7%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.2	0	0.32	0	6%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.2	2	0.44	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.45	0	14%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	1	0.21	0	12%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	1.0	1	0.43	0	14%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.0	2	0.23	0	10%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	1	0.24	0	5%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
SJS W. Duehr	0.9	1	0.24	0	11%	0
SJS C. White	0.7	1	0.15	0	8%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.6	0	0.11	0	4%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.4	0	0.12	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.