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Game Recap
PIT5
FinalTue, Apr 14, 2026Every game that night
STL7

STL beat PIT 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 5.19 expected goals to 2.77. STL outshot PIT 31 to 23. J. Snuggerud led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). L. Mailloux had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Binnington stopped 18 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT3115
STL1337
  1. 1st 10:14PITR. McGroarty0.04 xG
  2. 1st 16:40PITA. Hayes0.12 xG
  3. 1st 17:23PITA. Mantha0.16 xG
  4. 1st 18:44STLJ. Snuggerud0.17 xG
  5. 2nd 2:58PITE. Soderblom0.32 xG
  6. 2nd 4:51STLO. Sundqvist0.37 xG
  7. 2nd 10:37STLL. Mailloux0.04 xG
  8. 2nd 15:49STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.73 xG
  9. 3rd 4:11STLD. Holloway0.22 xG
  10. 3rd 4:55STLP. Buchnevich0.18 xG
  11. 3rd 12:20PITA. Hayes0.21 xG
  12. 3rd 18:17STLD. HollowayEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

PITSTL
23Shots on goal31
2.77Expected goals5.19
50Shot attempts54
215v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/3
15Hits20
10Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes4
21Giveaways15
7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.77 xGSTL 5.19 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdPIT goal, 10:14PIT goal, 16:40PIT goal, 17:23STL goal, 18:44PIT goal, 2:58STL goal, 4:51STL goal, 10:37STL goal, 15:49STL goal, 4:11STL goal, 4:55PIT goal, 12:20STL goal, 18:17

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT23 on goal, 5 scored
STL31 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. ManthaRW112300-1218:232:57
K. HayesRW022200+3014:011:09
A. HayesRW202321+1013:481:02
B. KindelC0111000018:052:46
R. McGroartyRW1011000015:211:14
E. SoderblomLW101110-1213:430:00
T. NovakC000200-2019:562:51
V. KoivunenRW000201-2018:093:03
J. BrazeauRW000102-1016:410:59
N. AcciariC0000020014:050:00
R. Harvey-PinardLW000200+1011:010:00
J. KoppanenLW000000-1010:510:00
R. SheaD0111000021:581:07
J. LivanavageD000001-2025:142:52
J. St. IvanyD000040-1021:000:00
C. CliftonD0001110018:540:00
I. SolovyovD0002210214:310:00
R. GravesD0001510014:200:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner21174.81040:00
A. Silovs972.77817:30Loss

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. SnuggerudRW224312+2016:401:48
D. HollowayLW213510+2219:021:48
R. ThomasC022101+2018:541:34
J. NeighboursLW0221200013:161:34
P. BuchnevichLW101200-1015:510:41
J. DrouinLW011310-1014:450:41
J. KyrouRW011200-1013:430:41
A. ToropchenkoRW0111400012:470:00
O. SundqvistC1011400012:300:00
P. SuterC0000100016:000:00
D. DvorskyRW000200-1012:480:55
N. WalkerLW0000310211:390:00
L. MaillouxD112401+1021:270:55
P. BrobergD011300+3021:381:48
C. ParaykoD0001130023:360:00
C. FowlerD0001020023:260:00
T. TuckerD0000000015:040:00
M. KesselD000124-1012:540:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Binnington23185.78360:00Win
J. Hofer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1T. Novak15:40V. Koivunen13:36J. Brazeau14:33
Line 2A. Mantha14:05B. Kindel13:14E. Soderblom13:28
Line 3K. Hayes11:52R. McGroarty11:29A. Hayes11:18
Line 4R. Harvey-Pinard11:01N. Acciari12:31J. Koppanen10:18
Pair 1J. Ivany19:55J. Livanavage20:02
Pair 2C. Clifton17:20R. Shea16:57
Pair 3R. Graves13:25I. Solovyov14:21

STL

Line 1D. Holloway16:03R. Thomas16:01J. Snuggerud14:06
Line 2J. Drouin14:04J. Neighbours11:42D. Dvorsky11:53
Line 3P. Buchnevich12:31P. Suter12:40J. Kyrou11:53
Line 4N. Walker10:56A. Toropchenko10:40O. Sundqvist10:16
Pair 1C. Fowler20:05C. Parayko20:12
Pair 2P. Broberg16:44L. Mailloux17:21
Pair 3T. Tucker15:04M. Kessel12:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.3, STL 3.0PIT 5, STL 7
Total goals6.312
Shots on goalPIT 27.7, STL 25.3PIT 23, STL 31
Win chancePIT 54%STL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
STL D. Holloway2.650.84328%2
STL J. Snuggerud2.430.75424%2
STL J. Kyrou2.220.66127%0
STL R. Thomas1.611.00226%0
PIT T. Novak1.620.53021%0
PIT A. Mantha1.630.61225%1
STL P. Buchnevich1.620.65123%1
PIT B. Kindel1.610.37117%0
STL L. Mailloux1.540.3029%1
STL C. Parayko1.410.3209%0
PIT K. Hayes1.320.28213%0
PIT A. Hayes1.330.23214%2
PIT N. Acciari1.300.29014%0
STL P. Suter1.300.41018%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.320.34016%0
PIT J. Brazeau1.310.35016%0
PIT E. Soderblom1.310.30114%1
PIT R. McGroarty1.210.23110%1
STL J. Neighbours1.210.53222%0
STL J. Drouin1.230.48113%0
STL P. Broberg1.230.45110%0
STL A. Toropchenko1.010.22110%0
STL T. Tucker1.000.2406%0
PIT C. Clifton0.910.2204%0
STL C. Fowler0.910.3807%0
PIT R. Shea0.910.3516%0
PIT I. Solovyov0.920.2703%0
PIT V. Koivunen0.920.2107%0
PIT J. Ivany0.800.2002%0
PIT R. Graves0.810.1404%0
STL N. Walker0.800.24011%0
PIT J. Koppanen0.800.1409%0
PIT R. Harvey-Pinard0.720.27014%0
STL O. Sundqvist0.710.2619%1
STL M. Kessel0.710.1404%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.