Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
PIT3
WPG6
WPG beat PIT 6-3, with the chances close: 4.70 expected goals to 4.50. L. Eller led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Eller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. E. Comrie stopped 39 of 42.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| WPG | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
- 2nd 1:30PITK. HayesPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:21PITL. Eller0.40 xG
- 2nd 12:18WPGK. Connor0.19 xG
- 2nd 17:36WPGM. Scheifele0.27 xG
- 2nd 19:29WPGV. Namestnikov0.14 xG
- 3rd 1:39PITL. Eller0.03 xG
- 3rd 4:20WPGA. Lowry0.23 xG
- 3rd 7:41WPGM. Appleton0.01 xG
- 3rd 17:30WPGN. NiederreiterEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
PITWPG
42Shots on goal37
4.50Expected goals4.70
86Shot attempts62
385v5 shots on goal33
1/1Power play0/2
18Hits21
11Blocked shots25
6Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways24
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 4.50 xGWPG 4.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Eller | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:41 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:37 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:32 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:22 | 1:10 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:41 | 0:51 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:19 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 1:14 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:36 | 1:10 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:41 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 59:21 | Loss |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Appleton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:06 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:58 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:36 | 1:07 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:56 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 16:20 | 1:40 |
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 15:22 | 1:05 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:42 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:05 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:46 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:12 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:50 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:55 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:51 | 1:13 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:20 | 1:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 42 | 39 | 3 | .929 | 59:53 | Win |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.9, WPG 3.4 | PIT 3, WPG 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 31.7, WPG 31.7 | PIT 42, WPG 37 |
| Win chance | WPG 57% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 4 | 1.01 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 3.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 5 | 0.97 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 3 | 0.79 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.3 | 1 | 0.92 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 2 | 1.04 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 6 | 0.48 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.8 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.7 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 1.6 | 6 | 0.32 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.5 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.5 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.