Game Recap: SEA 3, ANA 1, December 22, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA3

FinalMon, Dec 22, 2025Every game that night

ANA1

SEA beat ANA 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 3.91. ANA outshot SEA 41 to 21. J. Eberle led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Gauthier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. P. Grubauer stopped 40 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	1	2	3
ANA	0	1	0	1

2nd 4:49SEAF. GaudreauPP0.08 xG
2nd 15:40ANAM. Granlund0.07 xG
3rd 10:04SEAJ. Eberle0.10 xG
3rd 19:24SEAJ. EberleEN0.13 xG

Team Stats

SEAANA

21Shots on goal41

2.39Expected goals3.91

45Shot attempts76

145v5 shots on goal34

1/3Power play0/2

24Hits24

13Blocked shots12

16Penalty minutes18

16Giveaways13

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.39 xGANA 3.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA21 on goal, 3 scored

ANA41 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	2	0	2	2	2	1	+2	0	18:07	0:57
K. Kakko	RW	0	2	2	2	2	1	+1	0	17:07	2:09
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:46	1:59
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:37	0:49
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	2	1	3	+2	2	18:28	0:57
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	11:38	1:59
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:21	0:47
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:13	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	10:27	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:57	1:56
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	12	9:30	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8:39	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	25:04	0:11
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	23:12	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	20:33	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	18:10	1:48
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:57	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:14	1:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	41	40	1	.976	60:00	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	20:59	2:50
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	19:36	2:51
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:11	2:49
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:00	1:11
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	2	17:45	2:46
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	16:31	1:09
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:42	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:33	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:23	1:08
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:56	1:04
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	12	10:28	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:51	0:06
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	24:58	2:56
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	3	3	2	0	2	21:07	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	-1	0	19:24	0:58
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	18:59	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	16:00	0:06
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	15:57	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	20	18	2	.900	58:44	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle16:00M. Beniers16:08K. Kakko14:43

Line 2C. Stephenson17:20E. Tolvanen14:23F. Gaudreau14:13

Line 3B. Meyers10:32T. Kartye9:21J. Melanson8:39

Line 4J. Nyman8:01S. Wright9:14R. Winterton9:28

Pair 1A. Larsson20:52V. Dunn14:06

Pair 2J. Oleksiak17:59R. Lindgren18:28

Pair 3J. Mahura13:42R. Evans15:06

ANA

Line 1B. Sennecke14:58M. McTavish14:18C. Gauthier14:15

Line 2M. Granlund15:22T. Terry14:45C. Kreider14:04

Line 3A. Killorn11:12R. Poehling11:59R. Johnston10:19

Line 4R. Strome9:52F. Vatrano8:48J. Harkins8:45

Pair 1J. Trouba18:25J. LaCombe19:19

Pair 2R. Gudas17:17P. Mintyukov16:47

Pair 3O. Zellweger13:53I. Moore13:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.9, ANA 3.2	SEA 3, ANA 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	SEA 27.2, ANA 30.4	SEA 21, ANA 41
Win chance	ANA 55%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.2	8	0.82	0	29%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	5	0.86	0	27%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.4	1	0.71	0	14%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.4	0	0.75	0	36%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	2	0.69	2	24%	2
ANA J. LaCombe	2.1	1	0.62	1	13%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	5	0.63	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.0	2	0.59	1	24%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.9	1	0.74	0	23%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	2	0.62	1	23%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.9	2	0.39	0	19%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.8	2	0.74	1	19%	1
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	3	0.34	1	7%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	2	0.31	0	8%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.5	1	0.74	0	22%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.5	1	0.41	0	18%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	2	0.43	2	16%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.4	0	0.29	0	14%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	1	0.49	1	20%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	1	0.34	0	8%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.4	2	0.42	1	18%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.2	0	0.40	0	12%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	0	0.23	0	3%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.2	2	0.43	0	14%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.1	3	0.25	0	6%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	3	0.32	0	7%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	3	0.16	0	8%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	1.0	0	0.29	0	5%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.9	1	0.18	0	10%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	1	0.30	0	6%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	1	0.21	0	10%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	1	0.13	0	7%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.7	1	0.13	0	7%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	2	0.21	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.