Game Recap: SEA 2, ANA 4, February 3, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

SEA2

FinalTue, Feb 3, 2026Every game that night

ANA4

ANA beat SEA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.03 expected goals to 2.41. J. Harkins led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Winterton had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Dostal stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	0	2	2
ANA	0	2	2	4

2nd 4:01ANAC. Gauthier0.05 xG
2nd 19:27ANAJ. Trouba0.01 xG
3rd 0:24ANAA. Killorn0.08 xG
3rd 13:54ANAR. Johnston0.24 xG
3rd 15:31SEAJ. Eberle0.33 xG
3rd 17:29SEAT. Kartye0.08 xG

Team Stats

SEAANA

28Shots on goal31

2.41Expected goals4.03

57Shot attempts72

215v5 shots on goal26

0/0Power play0/3

12Hits16

20Blocked shots14

20Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways18

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.41 xGANA 4.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA28 on goal, 2 scored

ANA31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	16:50	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	15:42	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	11:57	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:02	0:00
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	18:10	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	16:21	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:05	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:50	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	14:13	0:00
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:28	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:16	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	12	8:14	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	21:00	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	2	24:14	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-2	2	20:06	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	19:56	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:45	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	31	27	4	.871	56:12	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Harkins	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	11:11	1:29
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	19:05	4:06
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:24	4:21
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	16:58	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:21	1:29
T. Washe	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	10:51	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	9:24	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:57	4:21
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	0	18:43	4:22
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:00	1:30
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	14:01	1:30
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:38	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+1	0	23:19	4:21
J. Trouba	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	2	19:28	0:16
I. Moore	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	17:48	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:20	1:30
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	0	17:19	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. McCann13:19M. Beniers13:50J. Eberle12:28

Line 2C. Stephenson12:15E. Tolvanen12:09R. Winterton12:33

Line 3K. Kakko11:19S. Wright14:29J. Schwartz11:52

Line 4F. Gaudreau11:27T. Kartye10:59J. Melanson8:14

Pair 1J. Oleksiak18:54B. Montour19:43

Pair 2A. Larsson15:12V. Dunn16:33

Pair 3R. Lindgren13:05R. Evans13:24

ANA

Line 1J. Viel13:38C. Gauthier14:03M. McTavish12:31

Line 2T. Terry14:07R. Poehling13:52C. Kreider13:10

Line 3M. Granlund11:58B. Sennecke11:43A. Killorn11:38

Line 4J. Harkins9:42T. Washe9:15R. Johnston9:24

Pair 1R. Gudas16:36O. Zellweger17:13

Pair 2J. Trouba16:55J. LaCombe16:00

Pair 3I. Moore15:00P. Mintyukov15:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.1, ANA 3.3	SEA 2, ANA 4
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	SEA 25.9, ANA 30.8	SEA 28, ANA 31
Win chance	ANA 53%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.3	3	0.79	1	29%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.7	5	0.91	0	29%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.6	2	0.55	0	17%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	4	0.80	1	29%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.2	3	0.62	0	23%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.2	1	0.82	1	23%	0
ANA J. Trouba	2.1	1	0.38	1	8%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.1	3	0.70	0	24%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.0	3	0.50	1	22%	1
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	0	0.64	0	32%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	3	0.61	1	13%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	2	0.66	1	23%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	1.9	1	0.53	0	22%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	0	0.62	2	11%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	0	0.53	0	22%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	2	0.64	0	23%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	1	0.26	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	1	0.49	0	20%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.4	2	0.20	0	12%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.3	1	0.48	1	17%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	0	0.48	0	16%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	0	0.32	0	8%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	1	0.37	0	8%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	0	0.39	0	16%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.68	0	20%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	6	0.26	0	8%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	2	0.21	0	3%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	1	0.22	0	6%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.9	0	0.19	1	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	1	0.16	2	9%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	3	0.24	0	10%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	2	0.23	1	11%	1
ANA T. Washe	0.8	1	0.17	1	11%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.26	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.29	0	7%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	3	0.17	1	5%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.