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Game Recap
SEA6
BUF2
SEA beat BUF 6-2, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 2.60. K. Kakko led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Lafferty had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. J. Daccord stopped 33 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:37BUFS. Lafferty0.01 xG
- 1st 17:17BUFJ. QuinnPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 12:48SEAR. Evans0.13 xG
- 2nd 19:12SEAA. Burakovsky0.03 xG
- 3rd 3:08SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.30 xG
- 3rd 3:46SEAK. Kakko0.04 xG
- 3rd 5:26SEAK. KakkoPP0.26 xG
- 3rd 16:25SEAB. TanevEN0.66 xG
Team Stats
SEABUF
29Shots on goal35
3.25Expected goals2.60
43Shot attempts76
165v5 shots on goal31
1/4Power play1/5
18Hits20
18Blocked shots1
17Penalty minutes15
21Giveaways14
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 3.25 xGBUF 2.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 20:28 | 4:26 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:03 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:40 | 2:20 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 4:16 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:41 | 2:11 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 5 | 14:11 | 2:03 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 2:35 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 18:43 | 4:16 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:59 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 6:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:07 |
| R. Evans | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:21 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 4:33 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:16 | 2:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 5:20 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:24 | 5:17 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 2:05 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:06 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 21:49 | 5:19 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 19:20 | 2:56 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 19:09 | 5:01 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:54 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 2:41 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 23:42 | 4:31 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:17 | 2:09 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:37 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:09 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 5:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 58:47 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 3.0, BUF 3.2 | SEA 6, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 27.2, BUF 27.9 | SEA 29, BUF 35 |
| Win chance | BUF 53% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 6 | 1.02 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.72 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.5 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.4 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.2 | 4 | 0.68 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 5 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.