Game Recap: SEA 2, BUF 3 (SO), March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA2

Final/SOSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

BUF beat SEA 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.08 expected goals to 3.44. B. McMann led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Montour had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. U. Luukkonen stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SEA	1	1	0	0	2
BUF	0	1	1	1	3

1st 12:42SEAC. Stephenson0.12 xG
2nd 13:18SEAB. McMann0.15 xG
2nd 15:55BUFR. DahlinPP0.07 xG
3rd 11:39BUFP. Krebs0.14 xG

Team Stats

SEABUF

34Shots on goal36

3.44Expected goals4.08

59Shot attempts74

295v5 shots on goal28

0/4Power play1/3

14Hits27

17Blocked shots10

11Penalty minutes13

13Giveaways18

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.44 xGBUF 4.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA34 on goal, 2 scored

BUF35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	23:03	4:11
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+2	0	20:14	3:32
K. Kakko	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	17:02	3:15
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	21:36	4:18
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:30	4:17
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:54	0:10
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:50	2:10
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:16	4:26
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	14:54	3:29
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:44	0:07
O. Fisker Molgaard	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:40	0:09
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:36	1:29
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	7	2	0	0	0	26:25	3:17
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	23:07	4:56
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	22:20	0:05
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	4	18:37	0:09
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:07	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	5	12:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	36	34	2	.944	65:00	OT loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	-1	0	24:21	3:14
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	4	3	0	-1	0	17:06	3:11
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	15:17	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:39	0:53
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	24:32	0:57
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:44	1:04
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:08	3:13
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:05	3:12
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:21	0:55
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	10:50	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	10:44	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:51	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	-2	4	25:10	3:18
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	26:14	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:29	0:53
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:32	0:05
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:40	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	7	12:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	34	32	2	.941	65:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson15:56B. McMann14:54K. Kakko13:47

Line 2J. Eberle13:19M. Beniers15:18B. Catton14:29

Line 3B. Meyers9:06F. Gaudreau14:32E. Tolvanen10:04

Line 4J. McCann9:22O. Molgaard10:31S. Wright2:07

Pair 1B. Montour20:46R. Evans20:09

Pair 2A. Larsson17:43V. Dunn15:47

Pair 3J. Oleksiak9:47R. Lindgren11:28

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch17:51T. Thompson18:44P. Krebs15:08

Line 2J. Zucker10:53J. Quinn12:57R. McLeod11:20

Line 3Z. Benson10:30J. Norris9:41J. Doan12:26

Line 4S. Carrick8:43T. Kozak7:30B. Malenstyn7:22

Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:13R. Dahlin18:42

Pair 2O. Power15:35B. Byram17:41

Pair 3L. Stanley10:12C. Timmins12:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.0, BUF 3.3	SEA 2, BUF 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	SEA 25.6, BUF 28.9	SEA 34, BUF 36
Win chance	BUF 55%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	5	1.03	1	41%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.7	3	0.65	2	30%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	4	0.87	1	17%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.5	7	0.51	0	15%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	3	0.78	0	31%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	2	0.70	0	28%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.1	4	0.64	1	21%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	1	0.68	0	25%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	2	0.67	0	26%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	1	0.55	0	12%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	3	0.61	0	24%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	0	0.53	0	21%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	3	0.46	0	21%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	1	0.65	0	28%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.40	0	7%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.5	2	0.34	0	15%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	1	0.44	1	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	0	0.48	2	18%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.45	0	10%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	2	0.67	2	21%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	3	0.38	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	0	0.42	0	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	3	0.31	0	7%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	2	0.38	0	16%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.61	0	18%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	3	0.40	1	11%	1
SEA B. Meyers	1.1	1	0.23	0	12%	0
BUF S. Carrick	1.0	2	0.23	0	10%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	3	0.25	0	3%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	2	0.19	0	8%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.23	0	7%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.