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Game Recap
SEA2
CBJ6
CBJ beat SEA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.08 expected goals to 2.03. E. Tolvanen led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Montour had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. E. Merzlikins stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CBJ | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 11:58CBJS. Kuraly0.08 xG
- 1st 12:08SEAE. Tolvanen0.05 xG
- 2nd 3:29CBJL. Del Bel Belluz0.18 xG
- 2nd 10:53CBJZ. Werenski0.12 xG
- 2nd 12:27CBJD. Mateychuk0.28 xG
- 2nd 15:45CBJK. Johnson0.02 xG
- 3rd 8:44SEAE. Tolvanen0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:31CBJK. MarchenkoEN0.69 xG
Team Stats
SEACBJ
31Shots on goal24
2.03Expected goals3.08
76Shot attempts47
275v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play0/1
16Hits7
14Blocked shots23
2Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways16
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.03 xGCBJ 3.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:29 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:28 | 3:44 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:57 | 2:39 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 2:09 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:17 | 2:43 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:45 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:16 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:37 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 1:34 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 24:16 | 3:21 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:40 | 4:28 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:12 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 19 | 14 | 5 | .737 | 35:45 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 20:57 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:18 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:18 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:42 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:42 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:42 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:18 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:42 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| O. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:34 | 1:42 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:18 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 23:45 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:18 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 3.2, CBJ 3.3 | SEA 2, CBJ 6 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 28.1, CBJ 30.3 | SEA 31, CBJ 24 |
| Win chance | CBJ 52% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.5 | 3 | 0.90 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 3.0 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.8 | 6 | 0.64 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.6 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.3 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.1 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.