Game Recap: SEA 2, CBJ 5, March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA2

FinalSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat SEA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.27 expected goals to 2.39. CBJ outshot SEA 28 to 17. C. Sillinger led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Sillinger had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. E. Merzlikins stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	1	0	2
CBJ	3	1	1	5

1st 2:48CBJD. Heinen0.02 xG
1st 8:58CBJD. Severson0.05 xG
1st 15:16CBJM. Olivier0.27 xG
1st 16:17SEAV. Dunn0.08 xG
2nd 8:31SEAK. KakkoPP0.12 xG
2nd 9:33CBJK. Johnson0.18 xG
3rd 17:34CBJC. SillingerEN0.49 xG

Team Stats

SEACBJ

17Shots on goal28

2.39Expected goals3.27

43Shot attempts52

145v5 shots on goal23

1/1Power play0/3

14Hits15

13Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways10

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.39 xGCBJ 3.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA16 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kakko	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	2	14:58	0:28
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:57	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:39	0:28
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:13	1:03
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:58	1:03
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	16:27	1:03
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:10	1:03
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:12	0:28
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:37	0:28
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	11:21	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	9:06	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-4	0	8:15	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	21:21	1:03
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-3	2	17:30	0:28
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	24:45	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	19:45	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:18	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	18:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	27	23	4	.852	59:27	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	1	2	3	5	1	2	+3	0	13:59	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	1	1	2	2	6	0	+3	0	14:14	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	18:54	3:41
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	15:52	2:22
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:39	2:15
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:20	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:46	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:22	3:37
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:06	4:24
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+3	0	17:31	3:36
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	16:23	2:19
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:31	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	3	3	4	0	0	+4	0	24:07	4:13
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+3	0	21:19	1:46
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	22:41	1:47
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:26	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:01	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	17	15	2	.882	60:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1B. McMann15:22M. Beniers14:51J. Eberle14:34

Line 2C. Stephenson16:35K. Kakko14:30F. Gaudreau14:02

Line 3B. Catton13:44S. Wright13:09E. Tolvanen12:15

Line 4J. Melanson9:06B. Meyers8:17J. Nyman8:15

Pair 1A. Larsson19:58V. Dunn19:55

Pair 2R. Evans16:53J. Oleksiak16:38

Pair 3B. Montour16:39R. Lindgren14:57

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment15:45A. Fantilli15:13K. Marchenko14:42

Line 2M. Olivier13:41C. Sillinger13:26C. Coyle12:29

Line 3K. Johnson13:30S. Monahan13:01C. Garland12:24

Line 4B. Jenner11:42D. Heinen10:46I. Lundestrom9:03

Pair 1D. Severson19:15Z. Werenski19:54

Pair 2I. Provorov19:08D. Fabbro15:00

Pair 3E. Gudbranson14:50D. Mateychuk15:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, CBJ 3.4	SEA 2, CBJ 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	SEA 25.3, CBJ 31.2	SEA 17, CBJ 28
Win chance	CBJ 59%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	4	1.00	3	19%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	1	0.88	0	32%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	1	0.80	1	30%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.6	1	0.52	1	18%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.4	1	0.57	0	27%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.73	0	27%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	2.0	3	0.79	0	24%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	2	0.64	0	23%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	2	0.55	1	14%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	1	0.49	1	21%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	0	0.48	1	21%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.58	0	22%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	0	0.57	0	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	0	0.37	0	7%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	5	0.41	3	13%	1
CBJ C. Garland	1.4	1	0.39	1	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	2	0.45	1	9%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.39	2	17%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	2	0.42	1	15%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.3	0	0.44	0	19%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	2	0.26	0	12%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	1	0.44	2	16%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	0	0.28	0	8%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.61	0	19%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	1	0.25	0	7%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	0	0.36	1	15%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	1	0.32	1	14%	1
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.35	0	9%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	2	0.20	0	6%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	0	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.24	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.