Game Recap: SEA 6, CHI 2, March 18, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA6

FinalTue, Mar 18, 2025Every game that night

CHI2

SEA beat CHI 6-2, with the chances close: 3.00 expected goals to 2.31. A. Larsson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Foligno had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Daccord stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	4	1	6
CHI	2	0	0	2

1st 3:46CHIC. BedardPP0.05 xG
1st 17:13CHIT. Bertuzzi0.05 xG
1st 17:44SEAA. Larsson0.06 xG
2nd 5:55SEAJ. Eberle0.15 xG
2nd 6:21SEAJ. McCann0.10 xG
2nd 12:53SEAM. Beniers0.17 xG
2nd 15:13SEAS. Wright0.38 xG
3rd 6:55SEAS. Wright0.16 xG

Team Stats

SEACHI

30Shots on goal29

3.00Expected goals2.31

51Shot attempts51

305v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/1

16Hits17

10Blocked shots10

7Penalty minutes7

13Giveaways16

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.00 xGCHI 2.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA29 on goal, 6 scored

CHI29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Wright	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	17:42	1:02
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:49	0:00
M. Beniers	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	14:49	0:54
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:07	0:56
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	16:20	1:06
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	16:10	0:57
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:43	1:03
M. Eyssimont	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	+1	2	12:26	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	17:05	1:04
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:50	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:57	0:58
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	5	10:25	0:00
A. Larsson	D	1	2	3	2	5	1	+2	0	22:36	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	21:10	1:29
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	20:44	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:58	0:31
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	18:31	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	0	15:55	0:31
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-3	0	15:29	0:31
L. Reichel	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	14:48	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	16:41	0:31
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	0	15:40	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:16	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:32	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:31	0:31
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:16	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:12	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:35	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	5	13:20	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	-2	0	21:37	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	19:56	0:31
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	6	3	-2	0	21:48	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	2	21:29	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:14	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	30	24	6	.800	60:00	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan Donato CHI Faces SEA, his team until May 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.3, CHI 2.7	SEA 6, CHI 2
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	SEA 29.7, CHI 24.9	SEA 30, CHI 29
Win chance	SEA 59%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	2.5	1	0.60	1	16%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	2	0.73	1	29%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.4	2	0.78	0	26%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.3	3	0.61	1	25%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.3	4	0.84	1	25%	1
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	2	0.70	1	14%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.0	2	0.57	0	24%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	2	0.64	2	25%	1
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	2	0.67	1	23%	1
SEA K. Kakko	1.8	0	0.59	0	22%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	3	0.48	0	21%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.6	0	0.50	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.80	0	24%	0
SEA M. Eyssimont	1.5	5	0.23	1	10%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	1	0.46	2	16%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	2	0.52	2	21%	1
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	6	0.44	0	16%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	2	0.30	3	7%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.2	3	0.65	2	23%	2
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.79	1	22%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	3	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	2	0.37	0	13%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.1	3	0.28	0	13%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.24	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.33	1	5%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.34	0	15%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	1	0.28	0	9%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.23	1	5%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
CHI L. Reichel	0.9	1	0.29	1	10%	0
SEA J. Hayden	0.9	2	0.12	0	7%	0
CHI A. Martinez	0.8	0	0.24	0	7%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.8	2	0.27	0	8%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.30	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.