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Game Recap
SEA0
DAL2
DAL beat SEA 2-0, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.06. B. Montour had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. C. DeSmith stopped 25 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 16:17DALS. Steel0.22 xG
- 1st 16:30DALW. Johnston0.04 xG
Team Stats
SEADAL
25Shots on goal23
2.06Expected goals2.64
57Shot attempts55
225v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play0/3
25Hits13
16Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes10
12Giveaways13
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.06 xGDAL 2.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 3:30 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:34 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 4:07 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 3:59 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 3:22 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 4:05 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:42 | 3:24 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:12 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 2:54 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:08 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:07 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:49 | 4:36 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:10 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:19 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 18:08 | 3:56 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 57:40 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:14 | 3:31 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:27 | 3:08 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 1:53 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:39 | 3:32 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:06 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:54 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:29 | 2:51 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 2:27 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:32 | 2:32 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:32 | 3:57 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:09 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:39 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.6, DAL 3.3 | SEA 0, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.1, DAL 29.1 | SEA 25, DAL 23 |
| Win chance | DAL 61% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 3.0 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.8 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.6 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.6 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.3 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.2 | 0 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.