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Game Recap
SEA1
DAL2
DAL beat SEA 2-1, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.97. M. Heiskanen led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Rantanen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. C. DeSmith stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 3:15SEAJ. Schwartz0.04 xG
- 1st 4:24DALW. JohnstonPP0.24 xG
- 1st 19:26DALT. Seguin0.05 xG
Team Stats
SEADAL
31Shots on goal25
2.97Expected goals2.98
58Shot attempts52
205v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play1/3
25Hits15
15Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways19
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.97 xGDAL 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:56 | 1:27 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:18 | 4:21 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:02 | 4:21 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:01 | 4:08 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:14 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 3:15 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 1:14 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:01 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:01 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:19 | 1:12 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:48 | 0:01 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:58 | 4:20 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:02 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:05 | 1:28 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:54 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:01 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Murray | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 58:07 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:40 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:55 | 3:40 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:34 |
| T. Seguin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 1:12 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:25 | 4:41 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:15 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:11 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:43 | 3:37 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:22 | 1:12 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:02 | 1:18 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle16:36C. Stephenson15:17M. Marchment15:51
Line 2M. Beniers12:22J. Schwartz12:08E. Tolvanen12:25
Line 3S. Wright9:45B. Catton7:55R. Winterton8:03
Pair 1A. Larsson16:10V. Dunn16:56
Pair 2R. Lindgren12:43B. Montour18:46
Pair 3R. Evans14:48J. Oleksiak12:01
DAL
Line 1R. Hintz13:29J. Robertson13:25T. Seguin14:28
Line 2S. Steel12:57M. Rantanen14:12W. Johnston12:28
Line 3J. Hryckowian11:40M. Bourque11:04O. Bäck9:58
Line 4A. Erne8:52C. Blackwell7:10R. Faksa6:52
Pair 1E. Lindell16:15M. Heiskanen16:01
Pair 2T. Harley17:21I. Lyubushkin14:12
Pair 3A. Petrovic13:32L. Bichsel14:19
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.8, DAL 3.1 | SEA 1, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.3, DAL 26.0 | SEA 31, DAL 25 |
| Win chance | DAL 55% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 2 | 1.11 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 6 | 1.22 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.3 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 0 | 0.74 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.2 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.2 | 5 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 1.9 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.