Game Recap: SEA 1, DAL 4, February 25, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalWed, Feb 25, 2026Every game that night

DAL4

DAL beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.63 expected goals to 2.87. DAL outshot SEA 32 to 19. W. Johnston led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Bourque had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. DeSmith stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	0	1	1
DAL	1	3	0	4

1st 18:41DALW. Johnston0.08 xG
2nd 1:43DALM. Duchene0.13 xG
2nd 5:35DALS. Steel0.27 xG
2nd 6:14DALW. JohnstonPP0.10 xG
3rd 6:46SEAR. Evans0.06 xG

Team Stats

SEADAL

19Shots on goal32

2.87Expected goals3.63

46Shot attempts63

155v5 shots on goal28

0/4Power play1/3

21Hits25

12Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes15

20Giveaways17

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.87 xGDAL 3.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA19 on goal, 1 scored

DAL32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	18:46	5:35
J. McCann	LW	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	18:01	5:30
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	17:58	5:10
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:23	5:10
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	17:22	1:49
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:08	2:24
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:55	2:12
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:41	0:35
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:28	2:26
R. Winterton	C	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	12:55	0:20
B. Meyers	C	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	12:16	0:17
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	1	7	1	0	2	8:53	0:00
R. Evans	D	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:45	0:32
B. Montour	D	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	24:31	2:16
V. Dunn	D	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	24:28	5:44
A. Larsson	D	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	23:20	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	19:07	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	32	28	4	.875	60:00	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	2	0	2	4	3	0	0	0	19:50	3:20
M. Duchene	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	17:57	4:13
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	18:13	1:19
S. Steel	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	15:29	0:26
J. Hryckowian	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	5	13:48	1:29
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	22:14	4:18
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	14:46	3:10
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	12:53	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:11	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	4	9:44	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:29	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	2	2	2	1	0	+3	2	22:38	1:27
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	25:22	3:12
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	23:25	0:21
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:23	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	14:30	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	12:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	19	18	1	.947	60:00	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. McCann12:31M. Beniers13:06J. Eberle12:48

Line 2F. Gaudreau14:08S. Wright13:43J. Schwartz12:01

Line 3C. Stephenson10:44E. Tolvanen10:10B. Catton13:06

Line 4J. Melanson8:53B. Meyers9:57R. Winterton10:53

Pair 1A. Larsson20:43J. Oleksiak17:05

Pair 2B. Montour20:13R. Evans16:40

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson17:56W. Johnston15:50M. Bourque16:24

Line 2J. Benn11:32M. Duchene13:31S. Steel12:17

Line 3C. Blackwell9:51A. Erne9:44J. Hryckowian9:26

Line 4A. Hyry8:39N. Bastian9:29O. Bäck7:05

Pair 1E. Lindell16:49M. Heiskanen16:51

Pair 2N. Lundkvist17:23T. Harley19:09

Pair 3A. Petrovic12:05L. Bichsel12:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, DAL 3.3	SEA 1, DAL 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	SEA 23.8, DAL 27.5	SEA 19, DAL 32
Win chance	DAL 61%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	3	1.08	0	38%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.4	2	0.45	0	14%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	4	0.82	2	33%	2
SEA J. McCann	2.3	1	0.71	0	27%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	2	0.74	1	11%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	1	0.49	0	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	2	0.51	2	11%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	3	0.58	0	21%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	0	0.46	0	19%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.7	3	0.45	0	19%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	2	0.55	0	20%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.7	5	0.41	1	18%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.6	1	0.65	2	24%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.4	0	0.44	0	18%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	1	0.50	0	17%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.2	1	0.25	0	7%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	3	0.26	0	7%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.35	1	7%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	1	0.36	1	11%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	0	0.60	0	18%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	0	0.36	0	14%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.33	1	14%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.0	3	0.22	0	9%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.9	4	0.14	0	4%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.8	1	0.18	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	1	0.19	0	6%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.20	0	4%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	1	0.16	0	9%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.22	1	5%	1
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.