Game Recap: SEA 2, FLA 1, February 22, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA2

FinalSat, Feb 22, 2025Every game that night

FLA1

SEA beat FLA 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.96 expected goals to 2.81. S. Wright led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Schwartz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Daccord stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	0	1	2
FLA	0	1	0	1

1st 6:32SEAK. KakkoPP0.13 xG
2nd 11:37FLAE. Luostarinen0.16 xG
3rd 7:03SEAJ. McCann0.15 xG

Team Stats

SEAFLA

22Shots on goal27

1.96Expected goals2.81

45Shot attempts63

195v5 shots on goal25

1/1Power play0/1

16Hits27

14Blocked shots7

2Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways11

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.96 xGFLA 2.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA22 on goal, 2 scored

FLA26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Wright	C	0	2	2	0	1	2	+1	0	13:40	0:49
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	19:26	0:53
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:02	0:50
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	15:02	0:56
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:30	0:59
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	17:53	0:51
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:19	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:03	0:57
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:41	1:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	12:47	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:49	0:00
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:05	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	23:03	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	23:19	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	22:07	0:58
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	19:43	0:52
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:28	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:25	1:09
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	13:11	1:03
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:18	0:50
A. Barkov	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:00	0:50
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	20:11	0:50
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:14	0:50
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	17:23	1:09
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:21	1:09
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	12:29	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:22	0:01
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	9:19	0:01
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	9:10	0:01
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:35	0:07
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	25:52	0:50
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	21:59	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:22	0:04
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:34	1:06
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	22	20	2	.909	57:05	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Montour SEA Faces FLA, his team until Jun 20242 SOG
Old teamMackie Samoskevich SEA Faces FLA, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.5, FLA 3.4	SEA 2, FLA 1
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	SEA 24.9, FLA 33.3	SEA 22, FLA 27
Win chance	FLA 64%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.1	1	0.85	0	32%	0
FLA S. Bennett	3.0	2	0.65	0	26%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	2	0.97	0	38%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.4	2	0.43	0	12%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	1	1.04	0	28%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.3	0	0.66	0	14%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	6	0.55	0	23%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.2	2	0.39	0	10%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.1	5	0.63	1	25%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	2.0	2	0.48	0	11%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	2	0.49	0	18%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.8	0	0.56	1	17%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.56	1	22%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	2	0.52	0	20%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.8	1	0.52	1	20%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.7	2	0.36	0	15%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	0	0.41	0	19%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.5	2	0.44	0	17%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	0	0.40	0	15%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	0	0.25	1	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.4	2	0.24	1	5%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.64	0	19%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	1	0.37	0	16%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	3	0.35	1	13%	1
FLA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.1	0	0.18	0	3%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	0	0.50	2	18%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.0	3	0.25	0	12%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.0	0	0.31	0	6%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.0	2	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	0	0.21	0	6%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.9	3	0.14	0	7%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.6	0	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.