Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
SEA5
MIN4
SEA beat MIN 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.24 expected goals to 2.73. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Hartman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Daccord stopped 34 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 9:22MINM. Zuccarello0.20 xG
- 2nd 1:06MINM. BoldyPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 1:46SEAJ. Eberle0.29 xG
- 2nd 8:15SEAJ. EberlePP0.45 xG
- 3rd 1:41MINK. Kaprizov0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:47SEAT. Kartye0.12 xG
- 3rd 12:33MINR. Hartman0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:34SEAJ. McCann0.06 xG
Team Stats
SEAMIN
34Shots on goal38
3.24Expected goals2.73
56Shot attempts62
265v5 shots on goal31
1/2Power play1/2
21Hits38
15Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways11
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 3.24 xGMIN 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eberle | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:33 | 1:45 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:45 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:45 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:06 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:54 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:25 | 1:15 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:15 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:15 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:56 | 1:15 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 1:45 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 22:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 38 | 34 | 4 | .895 | 64:45 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:16 | 3:20 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 3:20 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:50 | 3:20 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 3:20 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 28:20 | 3:20 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 34 | 30 | 4 | .882 | 64:34 | OT loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.8, MIN 3.1 | SEA 5, MIN 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 27.5, MIN 29.3 | SEA 34, MIN 38 |
| Win chance | MIN 56% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.9 | 4 | 1.22 | 3 | 44% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 6 | 0.90 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.2 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.8 | 4 | 0.74 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.5 | 5 | 0.87 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 6 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.3 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.1 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.0 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.9 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.