NJD beat SEA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 1.79. NJD outshot SEA 36 to 19. J. Bratt led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Noesen had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Markstrom stopped 17 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 10:16SEAA. Burakovsky0.10 xG
- 1st 12:27NJDL. Hughes0.04 xG
- 2nd 3:41SEAS. WrightPP0.20 xG
- 2nd 8:03NJDJ. Bratt0.06 xG
- 3rd 0:53NJDT. Meier0.32 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.79 xGNJD 3.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:22 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 1:23 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:18 |
| S. Wright | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:48 | 1:16 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:02 | 1:20 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:34 | 1:18 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 1:16 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:17 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:01 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:54 | 1:17 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:15 | 1:22 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:05 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 57:54 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:50 | 2:54 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:37 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:17 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:06 | 2:45 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 1:23 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:15 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:57 | 2:43 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:32 | 1:06 |
| N. Légaré | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:25 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:35 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.8, NJD 3.3 | SEA 2, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.7, NJD 29.5 | SEA 19, NJD 36 |
| Win chance | NJD 59% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 3 | 1.20 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.7 | 5 | 0.71 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.7 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 1 | 1.03 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.9 | 9 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.6 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.