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Game Recap
SEA2
PHI5
PHI beat SEA 5-2, with the chances close: 2.43 expected goals to 2.19. C. York led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Vladar stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| PHI | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 7:16SEAJ. Eberle0.13 xG
- 1st 9:56PHIO. Tippett0.03 xG
- 1st 13:19PHIT. FoersterPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 4:59PHIT. Konecny0.22 xG
- 2nd 5:32PHIN. CatesPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 8:33SEAJ. NymanPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 15:40PHIO. Tippett0.02 xG
Team Stats
SEAPHI
23Shots on goal27
2.19Expected goals2.43
46Shot attempts46
145v5 shots on goal24
1/6Power play2/4
23Hits20
11Blocked shots11
28Penalty minutes32
16Giveaways18
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.19 xGPHI 2.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:05 | 5:14 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:13 | 5:14 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 4:42 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:11 | 4:30 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:37 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:03 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 2:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:03 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:56 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:07 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17:12 | 1:32 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:23 | 5:02 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:33 | 0:09 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:12 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:38 | 1:17 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15:30 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 39:30 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | 20:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:56 | 1:07 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:09 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 5 | 17:47 | 1:09 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:33 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:31 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:08 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:32 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:27 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:04 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Luchanko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7:38 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:49 | 1:28 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 17:31 | 1:12 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle13:00M. Beniers13:38B. Catton13:06
Line 2M. Marchment11:48S. Wright10:49R. Winterton10:17
Line 3C. Stephenson9:55E. Tolvanen10:46J. Schwartz10:16
Pair 1A. Larsson16:38V. Dunn16:33
Pair 2J. Oleksiak15:51J. Mahura13:18
Pair 3R. Lindgren13:19C. Fleury14:16
PHI
Line 1S. Couturier14:15T. Konecny14:03O. Tippett13:01
Line 2M. Michkov13:34T. Zegras13:20C. Dvorak9:26
Line 3N. Cates10:08T. Foerster11:52B. Brink11:37
Line 4G. Hathaway7:18J. Luchanko8:19N. Grebenkin7:38
Pair 1T. Sanheim17:54C. York13:09
Pair 2N. Juulsen15:16E. Zamula15:14
Pair 3N. Seeler14:47J. Drysdale13:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 3.2, PHI 2.9 | SEA 2, PHI 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 25.5, PHI 26.5 | SEA 23, PHI 27 |
| Win chance | SEA 54% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 5 | 0.62 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.3 | 3 | 0.68 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.8 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.1 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 3 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI J. Luchanko | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.