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Game Recap
SEA4
PIT2
SEA beat PIT 4-2, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.70. PIT outshot SEA 33 to 18. A. Larsson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Rakell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Daccord stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:12SEAC. StephensonSH0.04 xG
- 1st 9:19PITP. Tomasino0.21 xG
- 2nd 4:42PITB. Rust0.08 xG
- 3rd 8:04SEAJ. Oleksiak0.11 xG
- 3rd 8:54SEAE. Tolvanen0.17 xG
- 3rd 18:57SEAK. KakkoEN0.53 xG
Team Stats
SEAPIT
18Shots on goal33
2.56Expected goals2.70
49Shot attempts69
165v5 shots on goal26
0/1Power play0/1
28Hits20
17Blocked shots13
12Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways16
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.56 xGPIT 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20:28 | 1:07 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:54 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:06 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:53 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:54 | 1:06 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:54 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:52 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:51 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:02 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:15 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:52 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:00 | 1:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:01 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:59 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:59 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:23 | 1:01 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:07 | 1:01 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:01 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:59 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:03 | 0:59 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:59 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 1:01 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 58:37 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 3.0, PIT 3.1 | SEA 4, PIT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 28.2, PIT 29.4 | SEA 18, PIT 33 |
| Win chance | PIT 52% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.1 | 0 | 1.26 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.9 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 6 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 0 | 0.80 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.