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Game Recap
SEA2
STL7
STL beat SEA 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.89 expected goals to 1.88. C. Fowler led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Thomas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Binnington stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| STL | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
- 1st 8:04STLJ. Kyrou0.12 xG
- 1st 12:48STLO. SundqvistPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 5:10STLR. Thomas0.30 xG
- 2nd 8:23STLZ. Bolduc0.08 xG
- 2nd 9:45STLC. Fowler0.03 xG
- 2nd 11:55STLJ. Neighbours0.13 xG
- 3rd 0:20STLZ. Bolduc0.12 xG
- 3rd 5:13SEAV. Dunn0.15 xG
- 3rd 12:09SEAJ. Schwartz0.46 xG
Team Stats
SEASTL
27Shots on goal27
1.88Expected goals2.89
48Shot attempts45
235v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/2
18Hits18
11Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways18
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.88 xGSTL 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 2:11 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:42 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:51 | 1:52 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 1:49 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:06 | 2:06 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:04 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:29 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 2:12 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:14 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:02 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:48 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:31 | 2:31 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 29:45 | Loss |
| N. Kokko | 6 | 4 | 2 | .667 | 29:57 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Sundqvist | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:58 |
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:08 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:54 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:10 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 1:14 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:56 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:10 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:34 | 1:02 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:50 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:57 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 1:01 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:10 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.7, STL 3.0 | SEA 2, STL 7 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.4, STL 27.9 | SEA 27, STL 27 |
| Win chance | STL 55% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.5 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.2 | 5 | 0.99 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 2.0 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 4 | 0.45 | 3 | 9% | 1 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 3 | 12% | 1 |
| STL N. Leddy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.