Game Recap: SEA 1, TBL 4, February 23, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalSun, Feb 23, 2025Every game that night

TBL4

TBL beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 3.35. SEA outshot TBL 37 to 24. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Kakko had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	0	1	1
TBL	0	1	3	4

2nd 9:27TBLB. HagelSH0.08 xG
3rd 11:15TBLN. Kucherov0.03 xG
3rd 12:58TBLL. Glendening0.11 xG
3rd 15:24SEAS. Wright0.07 xG
3rd 18:14TBLN. PaulEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

SEATBL

37Shots on goal24

3.35Expected goals4.12

63Shot attempts50

335v5 shots on goal21

0/1Power play0/0

25Hits29

8Blocked shots12

0Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways13

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.35 xGTBL 4.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA37 on goal, 1 scored

TBL23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	1	2	3	+1	14:03	0:52
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-2	21:43	1:36
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	20:31	0:24
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	19:53	0:55
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	19:40	1:36
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:29	0:00
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	15:13	0:57
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	15:11	1:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:33	0:08
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	11:46	0:16
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	10:27	0:08
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5:46	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	23:25	0:24
J. Mahura	D	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	13:35	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	24:27	1:36
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	20:52	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	20:36	0:08
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	14:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stezka	23	20	3	.870	58:20	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	2	1	3	+2	0	17:43	0:00
B. Point	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:14	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	18:13	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	17:56	0:00
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:45	0:00
L. Glendening	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	10:46	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	10:34	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:43	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:34	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:17	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	14:16	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	12:46	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+3	0	21:32	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:57	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	23:02	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	22:08	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	+2	2	19:07	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
M. Tomkins	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.6, TBL 3.6	SEA 1, TBL 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	SEA 25.9, TBL 30.5	SEA 37, TBL 24
Win chance	TBL 66%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.5	3	1.74	1	38%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	2	1.06	0	38%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.8	2	1.06	2	33%	1
TBL B. Point	2.7	2	1.11	1	41%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.4	3	0.54	0	23%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	1	0.84	0	15%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.2	5	0.62	0	25%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.2	1	0.38	1	12%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.1	4	0.60	0	14%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	2.0	2	0.71	1	25%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	4	0.55	0	22%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.9	1	0.54	1	23%	1
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	1	0.51	0	19%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.8	6	0.51	0	20%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.7	0	0.45	0	8%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	0	0.40	0	18%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.6	0	0.44	0	17%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.6	1	0.23	1	10%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	2	0.39	0	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	1	0.24	0	7%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	3	0.20	0	12%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.64	0	19%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	3	0.26	0	13%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	0	0.36	1	5%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	1	0.53	1	18%	1
TBL C. Atkinson	1.1	0	0.23	1	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.1	2	0.28	0	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	2	0.17	1	3%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	1	0.29	0	7%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.9	1	0.28	0	6%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.8	1	0.23	0	12%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.20	1	2%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	2	0.14	1	8%	1
SEA M. Stephens	0.6	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.