Game Recap: SEA 4, TBL 3 (OT), March 26, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

SEA4

Final/OTThu, Mar 26, 2026Every game that night

TBL3

SEA beat TBL 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.85 expected goals to 2.84. TBL outshot SEA 33 to 20. B. Montour led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Holmberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. P. Grubauer stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SEA	2	1	0	1	4
TBL	1	2	0	0	3

1st 15:18SEAB. Montour0.13 xG
1st 17:01TBLA. Cirelli0.20 xG
1st 18:12SEAK. Kakko0.21 xG
2nd 3:35SEAB. McMann0.09 xG
2nd 5:56TBLJ. Guentzel0.20 xG
2nd 10:18TBLC. PerryPP0.22 xG
OT 2:47SEAB. Montour0.11 xG

Team Stats

SEATBL

20Shots on goal33

1.85Expected goals2.84

33Shot attempts73

155v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play1/1

20Hits19

27Blocked shots9

13Penalty minutes13

11Giveaways17

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.85 xGTBL 2.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA19 on goal, 4 scored

TBL33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	20:45	1:17
K. Kakko	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	15:23	0:40
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	24:18	1:17
B. Catton	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	18:21	0:40
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	16:26	0:03
O. Fisker Molgaard	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	11:46	0:03
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	10:56	0:40
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	20:19	1:17
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:50	1:17
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:51	0:40
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:18	0:03
B. Montour	D	2	0	2	5	0	3	+2	4	23:04	0:43
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	6	3	0	0	25:17	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	21:40	1:17
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	19:59	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	15:48	0:03
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:26	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	33	30	3	.909	62:47	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	19:47	1:58
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	22:09	1:58
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:51	1:58
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:43	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	2	7:48	0:22
B. Point	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	18:22	1:36
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:41	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:14	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:24	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	4	12:49	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	9:01	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:19	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	21:23	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	5	1	1	+1	0	26:45	1:58
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	21:46	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	18:54	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	2	18:48	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	13:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	20	16	4	.800	62:47	OT loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson19:40B. McMann17:59K. Kakko14:43

Line 2J. Eberle15:25B. Catton17:20M. Beniers16:42

Line 3F. Gaudreau15:58B. Meyers10:01S. Wright9:37

Line 4E. Tolvanen12:38O. Molgaard11:43

Pair 1A. Larsson23:11V. Dunn18:45

Pair 2B. Montour19:45R. Lindgren17:23

Pair 3R. Evans14:49J. Oleksiak8:01

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel16:41G. Goncalves17:07B. Point14:47

Line 2N. Kucherov15:01B. Hagel17:09A. Cirelli15:06

Line 3Y. Gourde14:52Z. Girgensons13:27P. Holmberg12:49

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand8:19N. Paul8:58C. Perry7:26

Pair 1D. Raddysh22:22J. Moser18:36

Pair 2C. D'Astous19:58E. Lilleberg18:03

Pair 3R. McDonagh17:27E. Cernak12:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYanni Gourde TBL Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, TBL 3.6	SEA 4, TBL 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	SEA 24.4, TBL 29.9	SEA 20, TBL 33
Win chance	TBL 66%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	1	1.62	1	37%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.8	5	0.84	1	15%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	5	1.00	1	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	3	0.96	2	35%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	5	0.43	2	13%	2
SEA B. McMann	2.4	3	0.56	2	27%	1
TBL B. Point	2.1	2	0.95	0	36%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	0	0.62	0	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	2	0.49	0	11%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	2	0.55	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	0	0.43	0	19%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	2	0.65	1	22%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	0	0.47	0	18%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	0	0.36	0	7%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	1	0.28	1	13%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	2	0.43	0	14%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.3	0	0.35	0	17%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.3	2	0.51	0	17%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.42	2	15%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.2	0	0.40	1	17%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.2	1	0.38	1	18%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	0	0.26	1	7%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	1	0.20	0	11%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.58	1	18%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	4	0.33	0	13%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	1	0.36	2	6%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	2	0.34	1	14%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.0	1	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.38	0	5%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.9	0	0.10	0	3%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	3	0.21	0	3%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.21	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.