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Game Recap
SEA3
Final/OTThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night
TBL4

TBL beat SEA 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 2.64. TBL outshot SEA 35 to 27. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Kucherov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
SEA10203
TBL11114
  1. 1st 5:43SEAR. Winterton0.11 xG
  2. 1st 16:53TBLB. Hagel0.31 xG
  3. 2nd 3:38TBLB. Hagel0.10 xG
  4. 3rd 2:54SEAJ. McCannPP0.14 xG
  5. 3rd 9:58TBLI. Mikheyev0.08 xG
  6. 3rd 15:41SEAM. Beniers0.10 xG
  7. OT 2:07TBLV. Hedman0.21 xG

Team Stats

SEATBL
27Shots on goal35
2.64Expected goals4.01
44Shot attempts61
235v5 shots on goal26
1/3Power play0/3
15Hits30
11Blocked shots7
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways19
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.64 xGTBL 4.01 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTSEA goal, 5:43TBL goal, 16:53TBL goal, 3:38SEA goal, 2:54TBL goal, 9:58SEA goal, 15:41TBL goal, 2:07

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA24 on goal, 3 scored
TBL35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. GaudreauC011001+1017:520:05
J. EberleRW0111010017:252:43
C. StephensonC0110000017:162:33
M. BeniersC101200+1016:531:24
J. McCannLW101300+1016:212:43
R. WintertonC101401+1015:180:00
B. McMannC000110-1016:242:35
B. MeyersC000030+1214:250:00
M. SamoskevichRW0000000013:480:00
S. WrightC000402-4212:391:27
B. CattonC000210-3212:261:26
K. KakkoRW000120-2011:141:24
V. DunnD0111110028:242:30
A. LarssonD0002110027:180:08
R. EvansD000231-2026:501:37
J. MahuraD0001200016:270:00
V. OttavainenD0001110011:160:00
B. MontourD000202-108:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Grubauer35314.88662:07OT loss
J. Daccord000–0:00

TBL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HagelLW2026100023:243:24
J. GuentzelC011200+1019:244:11
B. PointC011110+1018:334:17
A. CirelliC011010+1018:192:38
D. JamesC011130+1215:251:44
I. MikheyevRW101310+1014:570:00
P. HolmbergRW011111+2214:041:32
N. KucherovRW000810-2022:164:18
Z. GirgensonsC0001700015:110:01
C. GeekieC0000700013:291:47
J. VielLW0000400010:480:02
V. HedmanD101200+3017:130:02
J. MoserD000201-1022:561:35
J. CarlsonD000101-1021:354:23
R. McDonaghD000301+1016:490:00
E. CernakD000312+1014:550:04
M. CrozierD000120+1012:330:02
E. LillebergD000001-1210:230:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Vasilevskiy27243.88962:07Win
D. Hildeby000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. McCann13:02M. Beniers14:01M. Samoskevich13:13
Line 2F. Gaudreau14:04R. Winterton12:47B. Meyers12:18
Line 3J. Eberle13:07B. McMann13:45C. Stephenson12:33
Line 4S. Wright10:58B. Catton9:56K. Kakko9:50
Pair 1A. Larsson22:45V. Dunn20:43
Pair 2R. Evans22:24B. Montour7:38
Pair 3J. Mahura15:13V. Ottavainen11:08

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli13:33B. Hagel17:19N. Kucherov17:09
Line 2Z. Girgensons12:55I. Mikheyev12:43P. Holmberg12:10
Line 3J. Guentzel14:10B. Point13:20D. James13:41
Line 4J. Viel10:46C. Geekie11:42
Pair 1J. Carlson16:06J. Moser18:20
Pair 2R. McDonagh14:55E. Cernak12:56
Pair 3V. Hedman14:46M. Crozier12:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 13 overs hit (31%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TBL B. Hagel3.5+125-1406Over
SEA B. McMann2.5+118-1301Under
SEA B. Montour2.5+125-1402Under
TBL B. Point2.5+126-1551Under
TBL J. Carlson2.5+150-1651Under
TBL J. Guentzel2.5-110+1002Under
TBL N. Kucherov2.5-156+1308Over
TBL A. Cirelli1.5-125+1000Under
SEA J. Eberle1.5-105-1201Under
SEA J. McCann1.5-132+1253Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5+125-1452Over
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-140+1150Under
SEA V. Dunn1.5-132+1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSEA 2.5, TBL 3.6SEA 3, TBL 4
Total goals6.17
Shots on goalSEA 23.5, TBL 30.6SEA 27, TBL 35
Win chanceTBL 67%TBL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TBL B. Hagel3.461.24240%2
TBL N. Kucherov3.281.68040%0
TBL J. Guentzel2.821.12139%0
SEA B. Montour2.620.50014%0
TBL B. Point2.411.02138%0
SEA B. McMann2.410.49024%0
TBL J. Carlson2.110.66012%0
SEA J. McCann2.030.59123%1
SEA V. Dunn2.010.52111%0
TBL A. Cirelli1.900.77128%0
SEA M. Samoskevich1.900.40017%0
SEA J. Eberle1.710.52120%0
TBL D. James1.510.39116%0
SEA M. Beniers1.520.51120%1
TBL M. Crozier1.510.2503%0
TBL I. Mikheyev1.530.47121%1
TBL P. Holmberg1.410.37115%0
SEA R. Winterton1.440.2819%1
SEA B. Catton1.420.35015%0
TBL V. Hedman1.420.4216%1
SEA A. Larsson1.320.2807%0
TBL J. Moser1.220.2806%0
TBL J. Viel1.100.1908%0
SEA S. Wright1.140.36015%0
TBL E. Cernak1.130.2304%0
TBL Z. Girgensons1.110.25012%0
SEA K. Kakko1.110.47016%0
TBL C. Geekie1.000.25012%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.000.31114%0
SEA B. Meyers1.000.24011%0
SEA C. Stephenson0.900.54117%0
SEA V. Ottavainen0.810.1503%0
TBL R. McDonagh0.830.3104%0
TBL E. Lilleberg0.800.2003%0
SEA R. Evans0.820.2807%0
SEA J. Mahura0.810.1603%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.