Game Recap: SEA 4, TOR 3 (OT), October 18, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

SEA4

Final/OTSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

TOR3

SEA beat TOR 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.13. J. Tavares led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Wright had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Daccord stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SEA	1	2	0	1	4
TOR	1	1	1	0	3

1st 7:29SEAS. WrightPP0.49 xG
1st 14:56TORM. Rielly0.06 xG
2nd 14:19SEAJ. Nyman0.13 xG
2nd 16:01TORJ. Tavares0.04 xG
2nd 17:44SEAV. Dunn0.02 xG
3rd 1:21TORJ. TavaresPP0.23 xG
OT 3:06SEAJ. Mahura0.19 xG

Team Stats

SEATOR

28Shots on goal30

2.46Expected goals2.13

51Shot attempts60

215v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play1/4

26Hits29

19Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways28

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.46 xGTOR 2.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA26 on goal, 4 scored

TOR29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:13	2:13
S. Wright	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	0	16:04	1:42
M. Marchment	LW	0	2	2	2	2	0	+1	2	15:50	1:44
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	17:50	2:07
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	17:05	1:41
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	15:30	1:41
J. Nyman	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:23	0:00
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:14	2:04
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:08	2:10
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:21	0:00
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:56	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:41	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	4	27:24	2:18
J. Mahura	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	+1	0	15:06	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	4	2	6	+1	0	27:43	0:02
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:44	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	17:17	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	11:45	1:33

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	30	27	3	.900	63:06	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:57	4:07
J. Tavares	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:11	4:07
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	23:05	3:56
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	21:59	4:18
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	2	16:12	1:51
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	0	13:49	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	13:16	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:02	1:41
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:49	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	12:48	0:40
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	12:18	1:39
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:38	1:35
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	5	2	1	-1	0	24:13	4:32
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	20:48	0:22
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:32	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:51	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:37	1:32
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	28	24	4	.857	63:06	OT loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:21M. Beniers15:06J. McCann14:39

Line 2M. Marchment14:06S. Wright13:48J. Nyman13:23

Line 3J. Schwartz14:20E. Tolvanen13:06C. Stephenson12:42

Line 4J. Hayden8:37T. Kartye7:32R. Winterton7:53

Pair 1A. Larsson24:01V. Dunn23:20

Pair 2J. Oleksiak16:48R. Lindgren14:54

Pair 3J. Mahura11:37C. Fleury10:12

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews16:48M. Knies15:55E. Cowan12:08

Line 2N. Roy11:45S. Lorentz11:46D. Joshua12:12

Line 3N. Robertson10:09B. McMann12:17M. Domi9:49

Line 4J. Tavares12:35W. Nylander14:50M. Maccelli10:03

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson14:30S. Benoit14:51

Pair 2C. Tanev18:17J. McCabe17:36

Pair 3M. Rielly18:30B. Carlo16:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBobby McMann SEA First game back in Toronto, his team until Mar 20260 SOG
HometownVince Dunn SEA Plays near home (born in Mississauga)1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.0, TOR 3.3	SEA 4, TOR 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	SEA 27.0, TOR 27.3	SEA 28, TOR 30
Win chance	TOR 56%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	4	1.21	1	45%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	2	1.10	2	38%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	2	0.87	2	32%	2
SEA J. McCann	2.5	0	0.71	0	27%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	0	0.81	1	29%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	3	0.51	1	22%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	0	0.45	0	21%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	2	0.61	1	21%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	2	0.60	1	13%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.54	0	22%	0
SEA M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.51	2	20%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	0	0.40	1	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	5	0.63	1	10%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.35	0	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.50	0	14%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.45	0	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	4	0.29	0	7%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	0	0.12	0	8%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	5	0.51	2	20%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	2	0.37	0	7%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	2	0.66	2	20%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.2	0	0.38	0	15%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.1	2	0.26	1	12%	1
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	0	0.24	0	12%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.16	0	4%	0
SEA J. Hayden	1.0	1	0.10	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.35	0	6%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	2	0.20	1	3%	1
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.31	0	14%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	2	0.22	0	9%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.26	0	4%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.9	1	0.08	0	2%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	3	0.23	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.