Game Recap: SEA 1, UTA 7, April 8, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalTue, Apr 8, 2025Every game that night

UTA7

UTA beat SEA 7-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.41 expected goals to 1.80. UTA outshot SEA 41 to 19. M. Sergachev led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Crouse had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. K. Vejmelka stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	0	1	1
UTA	3	4	0	7

1st 2:44UTAM. Sergachev0.11 xG
1st 12:54UTAC. KellerPP0.13 xG
1st 16:28UTAK. YamamotoPP0.15 xG
2nd 0:16UTAL. Crouse0.04 xG
2nd 11:15UTAL. Cooley0.07 xG
2nd 16:05UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.53 xG
2nd 18:07UTAM. Carcone0.01 xG
3rd 0:23SEAJ. McCannPP0.23 xG

Team Stats

SEAUTA

19Shots on goal41

1.80Expected goals5.41

47Shot attempts70

165v5 shots on goal29

1/4Power play3/6

22Hits17

12Blocked shots16

19Penalty minutes15

21Giveaways11

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.80 xGUTA 5.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA18 on goal, 1 scored

UTA41 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-2	0	17:49	3:06
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	13:38	3:12
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:29	1:43
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	18:11	1:43
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:43	2:54
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:38	3:04
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:00	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	13:55	1:55
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:54	1:39
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:11	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	2	11:15	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	5	10:18	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:34	2:52
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	2	20:31	1:57
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:10	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	-1	0	17:57	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	4	17:31	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	4	17:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	29	22	7	.759	39:37	Loss
V. Ostman	12	12	0	1.000	20:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	0	3	3	5	0	2	+1	2	19:10	5:12
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	19:38	5:16
L. Cooley	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	17:19	2:16
K. Stenlund	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	16:38	0:11
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:57	5:07
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:08	2:17
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	12:28	2:19
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	11:06	0:02
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	4	3	2	+1	5	9:54	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	18:29	4:04
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	13:29	2:14
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	2	11:05	0:06
M. Sergachev	D	1	2	3	2	3	1	+3	2	20:01	4:46
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	20:48	2:46
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	17:17	0:02
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:19	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	19:08	0:02
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	19	18	1	.947	59:43	Win
M. Villalta	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKailer Yamamoto UTA Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20241 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.9, UTA 3.5	SEA 1, UTA 7
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	SEA 26.4, UTA 29.8	SEA 19, UTA 41
Win chance	UTA 59%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	5	0.83	3	31%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	4	1.01	2	31%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.3	2	0.65	1	26%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.2	2	0.43	0	14%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	4	0.77	2	27%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	3	0.76	1	23%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	1	0.46	0	20%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	4	0.53	0	19%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	3	0.54	1	12%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	0	0.45	0	21%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	0	0.52	0	21%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	2	0.65	3	12%	1
SEA J. Eberle	1.6	2	0.53	0	20%	0
SEA M. Eyssimont	1.6	1	0.20	0	9%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.5	4	0.42	1	15%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	0	0.48	1	10%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.5	0	0.33	0	15%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.5	1	0.30	1	6%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.4	4	0.31	1	17%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	2	0.38	1	18%	1
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	2	0.43	0	17%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.4	1	0.41	1	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.28	0	7%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	0	0.32	2	16%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	1	0.51	0	20%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.38	0	15%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	2	0.34	1	14%	1
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	2	0.13	0	7%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	0	0.61	0	18%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	2	0.23	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.27	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.