Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
SEA5
VAN4
SEA beat VAN 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.44. V. Dunn led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Schwartz had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. P. Grubauer stopped 18 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| VAN | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 16:03VANB. BoeserPP0.24 xG
- 2nd 1:18SEAM. Beniers0.02 xG
- 2nd 8:36VANC. Garland0.11 xG
- 2nd 15:14VANB. Boeser0.15 xG
- 3rd 3:09VANJ. DeBrusk0.16 xG
- 3rd 15:15SEAJ. Schwartz0.02 xG
- 3rd 18:48SEAV. Dunn0.28 xG
- 3rd 19:10SEAJ. Schwartz0.30 xG
- OT 2:15SEAV. Dunn0.15 xG
Team Stats
SEAVAN
29Shots on goal22
2.80Expected goals2.44
65Shot attempts46
215v5 shots on goal18
0/3Power play1/2
8Hits24
13Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways9
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.80 xGVAN 2.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:17 | 2:57 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 2:51 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 3:03 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 2:37 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:55 | 0:25 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:19 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:39 | 2:47 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:23 | 2:12 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:38 | 2:35 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:22 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:22 |
| V. Dunn | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:26 | 2:56 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:11 | 0:22 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:47 | 3:05 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:07 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 60:15 | Win |
| A. Stezka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:34 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:32 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:35 |
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:29 | 1:24 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:34 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:35 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:37 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:33 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 22:24 | 0:38 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:07 | 0:04 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:04 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:49 | 1:31 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 62:15 | OT loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.9, VAN 3.3 | SEA 5, VAN 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.0, VAN 26.7 | SEA 29, VAN 22 |
| Win chance | VAN 57% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN C. Garland | 2.5 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.2 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| VAN J. Miller | 1.9 | 2 | 0.98 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.8 | 7 | 0.51 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| SEA D. Sprong | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 3 | 14% | 2 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.5 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.